The Global Risks Report 2024

Technological tipping points As critical thresholds are breached, the pressure to act fast and at scale will mount, and the focus of the Net Zero agenda will increasingly expand beyond decarbonization, to the “reversal” of climate change through frontier technological solutions, like geoengineering. 40 However, these nascent technologies could pose severe externalities of their own, raising complex questions around accountability. Geoengineering solutions have the potential to counter key drivers to climate change and related environmental impacts. Some directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (for example, through direct air capture and carbon storage), while others intervene to cool the climate, such as solar radiation management (SRM). 41 Investment in carbon capture and storage has already doubled to hit a record high of $6.4 billion in 2023, and the United States has already granted $1.2 billion in long-term funding to two Direct Air Capture hub developments in the states of Texas and Louisiana 42 – a bipartisan move that could survive the outcomes of the 2024 elections. Deployment of geoengineering technologies is nuanced, posing global benefits but also presenting system-wide and localized risks. First, a growing focus on “abated” emissions (fossil fuel emissions caught through technologies) could shift capital and focus away from emissions reduction and adaptation. This complacency could take hold before carbon removal is able to sufficiently scale over the next decade, given significant infrastructure and investment requirements, resulting in an overall slowdown in climate mitigation at a critical time. Second, dependent on the specific frontier technology in question, consequences are unknown or highly uncertain. Deployment could possibly lead to unintended changes to, for example, regional precipitation. 43 In addition, geological storage of carbon risks future “venting”, with potentially harmful consequences for nearby communities. 44 SRM could reduce the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes, but involves significant risks, like sudden termination shocks and large-scale salt and acid deposition. 45 As the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident, these externalities could complicate existing questions around legal accountability for climate change. The loss and damage agenda, as well as climate-related litigation, is likely to gain speed, targeting local, state and national governments. 46 However, deployment of these technologies by select actors could challenge these legal avenues, simultaneously giving rise to additional liabilities. For example, economic damage, agricultural losses or health problems from shifting weather patterns, acid rain, changes to air quality, or the spread of communicable diseases is possible under both climate change and an “engineered” climate 47 – and modelled attribution could be challenging if both effects are in play. In some cases, engineered effects may exceed anticipated local impacts from climate change, leading to geopolitical tensions and possibly even cross-border conflict. 48The next global shock? BOX 2.3 Ancient pandemic The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, experiencing global warming levels that are more than double those of the global average. 36 Further warming will lead to gradual reductions in the permafrost, while abrupt thawing could occur due to heatwaves, wildfires and other environmental shifts. 37 Although an “improbable” tail risk, it does not require the full collapse of the permafrost to release harmful contaminants and ancient “new” diseases, both microbial and virus-related, to which humans have little natural resistance, within the next decade. 38 Further, as both states and animals exploit the warming of the Arctic region, hosts will become more readily available, increasing the likelihood of the biological threat. 39 Ivan Bandura, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 48