Acting today Addressing the risk of critical changes to Earth systems requires an evolved approach to climate risk management and decision-making. While climate models are effective at illustrating potential hazards, vulnerabilities and exposures for decision-makers, 51 the current limitations of these tools means that we are still entering unchartered territory. Climate and economic modelling could be improved to fully consider the longer-term, non-linear and cascading impacts of Earth system changes through more powerful tools for analysing the Earth as an integrated whole, combining climate and ecological tipping points with broader planetary boundaries. 52 Part of these efforts will require the translation of scientific findings to inform decision-making, which has proved difficult in a climate context, but may be even more challenging when overlaid with the nature context. Indeed, around one-half of GRPS respondents highlight the need for enhanced Research and development with respect to both Critical changes to Earth systems, but also Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies, including geoengineering (Figure 2.10). These efforts could be supported through the creation of a global data commons for climate science alongside further investment in relevant equipment (such as remote sensing equipment and computing power) and ecological forecasting. GRPS respondents feel that Global treaties and agreements have the most potential for driving action. More credible emissions reductions remain the fastest and most effective means to avoid or mitigate the likelihood of climate tipping points. However, with evidence suggesting that some of these tipping points are already locked in, the ratio of adaptation to mitigation efforts will need to be rebalanced through National and local regulation, as complementary objectives. Expanding access to existing adaptation solutions will be essential, including early-warning systems, and decentralized renewable energy (disconnected from the grid) to empower local communities. States and development banks will need to work closely together to de-risk investment for the private sector in priority areas and markets.The next global shock? BOX 2.4 Ungoverned deployment Deliberate climate manipulation may form the next “Manhattan Project”, as governments become more selective about climate-related technologies that can be scaled and delivered in policy-relevant time frames. 49 Although highly unlikely, the unilateral and ungoverned deployment of climate manipulation technology is possible within the next 10 years, including by a single country, non-state actors such as philanthropists, or by companies for commercial gain. 50 While some technologies only have temporary effects, there is a great deal of uncertainty around impacts even over a short-term time frame. Risk governance: A 3° C world FIGURE 2.10 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024.“Which approach(es) do you expect to have the most potential for driving action on risk reduction and preparedness over the next 10 years? Select up to three for each risk.” Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological a b c d e fghia b c d e fghi 24%49% 11% 65%25%28%51%37%29% 8%53% 19% 56%13% 15%58%34%45% Critical change to Earth systems Share of respondents Adverse outcomes of frontier technologiesApproach a. Financial instruments b. National and local regulationsc. Minilateral treaties and agreements d. Global treaties and agreements e. Development assistancef. Corporate strategiesg. Research & developmenth. Public awareness and education i. Multi-stakeholder engagement Global Risks Report 2024 49

The Global Risks Report 2024