The Global Risks Report 2024

The end of development? 2.5 – Human development and pr osperity may stall as barriers to economic mobility arise from climate, technological and geopolitical constraints. – Deeply bifur cated labour markets could widen inequality between – and create additional risks within – developed and developing economies, as demographic structures and job demand and supply diverge. – Living standar ds could recede for populations suffering entrenched unemployment and economic distress, radically reshaping political dynamics. Severity score: Lack of economic opportunity FIGURE 2.16 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024. 10-year rank: 11thPersistent barriers to the realization of economic potential and security. Includes, but is not limited to: growing or persistent poverty; present or perceived income and wealth inequality; and unequal access to educational, technological and economic opportunities. 10-year average: 4.9 NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale[1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures havebeen rounded up/down.2 years 2%2% 10 years Proportion of respondents8% 10% 21% 26% 21% 11% 19% 19% 24% 19% 11% 6% 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1Severity The world has made rapid strides across most human development indicators over recent decades, but the fragility of these collective gains is evident. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic challenged global advancement, with visible reversals in 2020 across multiple economies and regions (Figure 2.17), as progress slid with respect to education, healthcare and poverty. 86 Economic mobility – or the ability to improve economic status and related outcomes – is perceived to be dwindling in developed and developing economies alike, as job markets change and current education, labour and social policies become outdated against a backdrop of changing demographics. Lack of economic opportunity is a new entrant to the global risks list. It features in the top 10 risks list over the two-year horizon and is expected to worsen in perceived severity over the longer term (Figure 2.16). Alongside Unemployment as the primary driver, GRPS respondents consider a Lack of economic opportunity to stem from a complex mix of other global risks. This includes short-term economic risks, such as Economic downturn and Inflation, and pressing societal risks such as Erosion of human rights, Intrastate violence and Societal polarization (Figure 2.18). Without careful management of the large-scale economic transformations that are taking place, economic mobility will stall and reverse. The climate transition, advances in AI, demographic shifts and geopolitical dynamics could interact over the coming decade to cement the mismatch between the demand and supply of labour between and within countries. The consequences for societal cohesion and political outcomes are wide-reaching, threatening standards of living for a large segment of the population in many economies. Gene Butty, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 57