The Global Risks Report 2024

Bifurcated markets Disruptions to labour markets are likely to escalate worldwide as a result of the two large-scale economic transformations that are concurrently taking place, driven by climate action and AI integration. These twin transitions will dramatically reshape the quality, quantity and distribution of job creation as well as job loss, driving divergent risks. Some economies and communities, isolated from job-creation and reskilling opportunities, will encounter saturated labour markets, hindering development. In others, challenges to social and labour mobility could contribute to shortages in critical industries, slowing economic transformations and progress. Both transitions offer valuable opportunities to tackle economic inequality through the generation of new income opportunities across a range of sectors. For example, AI and Machine Learning Specialists is anticipated to be the fastest-growing job, growing by 40% (1 million jobs) by 2027, while the green transition is estimated to lead to more than 30 million jobs by 2030. 87 Mirroring demand for renewable infrastructure, the global construction sector is expected to double in size in the 10-year period from 2020 to 2030, while related jobs, including those in trades and engineering, are among those anticipated to experience the largest growth in the coming years (Figure 2.19). 88 However, related job churn is likely to be significant, as these transitions displace workers in parallel, potentially leading to net job loss overall. The latest estimates anticipate structural job growth of 69 million, set against job losses of 83 million, over the next five years. 89 This level of job churn will be particularly challenging to manage, as these impacts Human development FIGURE 2.18 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMedium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal TechnologicalReferenceRisk interconnections: Lack of economic opportunity Technological power concentrationIntrastate violence Erosion of human rights Societalpolarization Lack of economic opportunity Labour shortages UnemploymentDebtInflation Illicit economic activityInvoluntary migration Chronic health conditions Concentration of strategic resources Economic downturn Asset bubble burstsTechnological powerconcentrationErosion of human rights Societalpolarization Lack of economic opportunityInsufficient infrastructure and services Global Risks Report 2024 59