Key findings The Global Risks Report 2024 presents the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from nearly 1,500 global experts. The report analyses global risks through three time frames to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 explores the most severe current risks, and those ranked highest by survey respondents, over a two-year period, analysing in depth the three risks that have rapidly accelerated into the top 10 rankings over the two-year horizon. Chapter 2 focuses on the top risks emerging over the next decade against a backdrop of geostrategic, climate, technological and demographic shifts, diving deeper into four specific risk outlooks. The report concludes by considering approaches for addressing complex and non-linear aspects of global risks during this period of global fragmentation. Below are the key findings of the report. A deteriorating global outlook Looking back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world – while others received minimal scrutiny. Vulnerable populations grappled with lethal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarization, violent protests, riots and strikes. Although globally destabilizing consequences – such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic – were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook for these developments could bring further global shocks. As we enter 2024, 2023-2024 GRPS results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade (Figure A). Surveyed in September 2023, the majority of respondents (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% expect even more turbulent conditions. The outlook is markedly more negative over the 10-year time horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook. In this year’s report, we contextualize our analysis through four structural forces that will shape the materialization and management of global risks over the next decade. These are longer-term shifts in the arrangement of and relationship between four systemic elements of the global landscape: – T rajectories relating to global warming and related consequences to Earth systems (Climate change). – Changes in the size, gr owth and structure of populations around the world (Demographic bifurcation). Short and long-term global outlook FIGURE A Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024. Short term (2 years)3% 27% 54% 15%1% Long term (10 years) Stormy : Global catastrophic risks looming Turbulent : Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophes Unsettled : Some instability, moderate risk of global catastrophes Stable : Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm : Negligible risk of global catastrophes17% 46% 29% 8% 1%"Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?" NoteThe percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because ﬁgures have been rounded up/down. Global Risks Report 2024 6