Deforestation trends in the Gran Chaco exhibit significant variation across its three main countries, influenced by legislation, enforcement challenges and potential regional leakage. In Argentina, deforestation rose sharply from 59,270 hectares in 2002 to a peak of 486,496 hectares in 2008. Following the implementation of the Forest Law around 2010, annual forest loss decreased to 166,322 hectares by 2023. However, this reduction raises a critical question: was the decline primarily due to improved enforcement or shifts in deforestation to more remote areas or neighbouring regions with fewer resources and limited monitoring infrastructure? Moreover, enforcement gaps and underfunded provincial frameworks suggest that local laws alone may not fully explain the decrease. Paraguay followed a similar trajectory, with deforestation peaking at 415,667 hectares in 2012 before dropping to 143,652 hectares in 2023. The decrease coincides with progress in compliance with environmental regulations, but inconsistencies in enforcement and the possibility of leakage to less monitored areas remain critical concerns. In Bolivia, deforestation rates in the Gran Chaco have remained relatively low over time compared to Argentina and Paraguay, as shown in the graph. However, there is a notable spike in 2019, primarily driven by widespread wildfires that affected over 6 million hectares across Bolivia. These fires were fuelled by a combination of factors, including climate change-related impacts such as severe water deficits and higher-than-average temperatures, as well as land-grabbing and ongoing deforestation activities.55 Unsustainable practices in the Gran Chaco lead to significant economic consequences BOX 11 A World Bank study on the effects of droughts in Argentina revealed that the 2021-22 drought cost the country approximately $1.44 billion in tax revenues, $2.67 billion in export revenues and 1% of GDP .56 Ongoing droughts, without policy adjustments, could reduce Argentina’s GDP by 4% annually by 2050.57 Agricultural losses from wildfires in Argentina in 2020 reached $6 billion, with recovery costs ranging from $1.1 billion to $3.7 billion, equivalent to 5-17% of national soybean production value.58 Meanwhile, in Paraguay’s Gran Chaco, wildfires in 2019 resulted in material losses of approximately $20.9 million to basic infrastructure such as fencing, livestock and other related assets. This estimate does not include costs associated with reforestation or losses to basic services, such as telecommunications during the wildfires.59,60 Furthermore, inadequate enforcement of public policies to support Indigenous Peoples and protect their territories has led to land tenure insecurity, exacerbating socio-economic vulnerability and weakening communities’ ties to their land. This insecurity increases the likelihood of environmental conflicts and contributes to deforestation, particularly in Indigenous lands and protected areas, which are often targeted for agricultural and livestock expansion in the agro- industrial model.61,62 A report by CRISOL highlights over 206,000 hectares of land-use conflicts in Argentina’s north-east (NEA) and north-west (NOA) regions, which encompass the Gran Chaco, driven by the grain, oilseed and beef production sectors.63 However, the report emphasizes that larger-scale conflicts are centred on other industries, such as mining. Land tenure irregularities and deforestation not only harm communities, as land is often marketed and sold without transparency or recognition of traditional inhabitants, creating conflicts and undermining sustainable development. This situation also reflects the failure of states to uphold international and national legal frameworks that protect Indigenous rights and contribute to ecosystem conservation, such as the International Labour Organization’s Convention 169. The protection and recognition of Indigenous and local communities’ rights and territories are essential to combat deforestation and land conversion. Studies show that areas where Indigenous land rights are respected experience lower rates of biodiversity loss, deforestation and forest degradation.64,65 For example, in Brazil, Indigenous lands lost only 1.2% of their native vegetation between 1991 and 2021, compared to a 19.9% loss on private lands.66 However, ensuring resilience in the Gran Chaco requires not only securing land rights but also acknowledging the region’s cultural and social plurality. The biome is home to diverse Indigenous and traditional communities, each with distinct identities, governance structures and relationships with the land. A comprehensive strategy must respect these specificities while leveraging shared opportunities to strengthen conservation and drive economic growth within a broader regional framework. Areas where Indigenous land rights are respected experience lower rates of biodiversity loss, deforestation and forest degradation. The Gran Chaco: Pathways Towards a Sustainable Future 30

The Gran Chaco Pathways Towards a Sustainable Future 2025