The TradeTech Paradox Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 2026

Background Peter Drucker said, “Knowledge is different from all other resources. It makes itself constantly obsolete.”15 Similarly, technological innovation, by itself, is not a guarantee of success. This exercise is a guided reflection designed to help you systemically assess, using strategic foresight, how resilient the technological innovations in this report, as well as your own strategies, remain in the context of different possible futures. For guidance on the foresight exercise, please click here. Step 1 Strategic technology choices (10 minutes) This report has explored different trade technologies. This exercise works with the following three innovation categories: 1. AI for visibility – goods 2. Distributed ledger technologies (DLT) for transparency and trust – data 3. Digital tools for trade finance and payments – money Imagine you are in a meeting with your team, deciding which technologies you will invest in to achieve your organization’s mission. Given your limited budget and resources, which two technologies would you prioritize for your investment and why? Step 2 Understanding scenario building process (40 minutes) This step focuses on scenario planning. While multiple methods exist for building future scenarios, the 2X2 matrix approach is highly popular.Here are the systematic steps for the process of developing your own scenarios: 1. Define the scope and time horizon: Clearly establish the area of focus (e.g. the future of international trade) and the planning window (e.g. 10 years). 2. Identify driving forces: Brainstorm and list all major factors that will shape the future of your area of focus. The social, technological, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) framework is an excellent tool for comprehensive identification. 3. Select key driving forces: From the list, select two forces to help develop your matrix based on the following critical criterion: they must have high impact and high uncertainty. Crucially, the two selected forces must be independent of each other. 4. Construct the matrix: Draw a two-by-two matrix using two driving forces you selected as the orthogonal axes. At each end of the axis, add the extreme outcomes (e.g. high/low) of your driving forces. This will create four distinct quadrants. These quadrants must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. 5. Develop scenarios: In 150 words or more, describe worlds in which the conditions within each of the four quadrants are met. Additionally, give each scenario a vivid and compelling name that captures its essence. Example: Scenario-building application for the future of international trade in 2035 Now, apply the process within the context of this report. The defined scope is the future of international trade in 2035. Out of the diverse factors identified using the STEEP framework, assume that “accessibility to technology” and “openness in global order” have been selected as the two key driving forces due to their high impact and uncertainty. The TradeTech Paradox: Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 31