Scenario matrix FIGURE 9 (Global order) Protectionist(Global order) Open and rules-based(Technology) Accessible (Technology) Restricted1 2 3 4 The following are examples of abbreviated scenarios based on the matrix. They are not predictions but tools to help you test the adaptability of technologies and strategies in the next section of this exercise. Abbreviated foresight scenarios TABLE 6 Scenarios Defining features Implications for the trade environment Scenario 1: Fragmented innovation (Accessible tech/ protectionist order)Technologies spread globally, but regional trade blocs set divergent standards, limiting global interoperability. Widespread tech access fuels strong local innovation ecosystems.Trade operates through regional, values-based networks. Cross-border flows are selective. Emerging economies use open-source tech. The lack of shared global data hinders collaboration. Scenario 2: Interoperable prosperity (Accessible tech/open and rules-based order)Global standards enable interoperability and shared prosperity. Multilateral frameworks govern data flows and AI ethics effectively. Cross-border innovation ecosystems flourish.Trade is enabled by shared standards and trusted digital verification. Policy aligns with sustainable development goals, allowing SMEs and developing nations to participate in high-value, tech-enabled trade. Technological capacity-building becomes a cornerstone of trade agreements and organizations. Scenario 3: Tiered world by tech (Restricted tech/open and rules-based order)Global trade coordination persists, but tech access gaps widen as leading economies dominate intellectual property (IP) and high-tech exports. Inequality significantly increases.Trade systems are open but structurally unequal. Developing countries rely on outdated imported tech. Smaller economies must strategize to develop trusted intermediaries to access tech value chains. Scenario 4: Techno-national standoff (Restricted tech/ protectionist order)Techno-nationalism and digital sovereignty dominate. Nations guard domestic tech advantages. Corporate- state alliances tighten around strategic technologies (e.g. semiconductors).Security and resilience take precedence. Trade barriers and export controls severely fragment global supply chains. Data localization and national AI frameworks replace multilateral norms, significantly raising tech and compliance costs. The TradeTech Paradox: Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 32

The TradeTech Paradox Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 2026