The TradeTech Paradox Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 2026

(Global order) Protectionist(Global order) Open and rules-based(Technology) Accessible (Technology) Restricted1 2 3 4Foresight stress test TABLE 7Step 3 Test the resilience of trade technologies (20 minutes) Use the matrix below to “stress test” each technology innovation. For each future, ask yourself the guiding questions, or questions of your choosing, to decipher if the technology exhibits any of the following qualities. Step 4 Reflect and discuss This final step moves the conversation from the stress test results to concrete strategic action and ongoing monitoring. 1. Assessing resilience: Based on the stress test, which technologies demonstrated the highest level of robustness across all four future scenarios? 2. The strategic pivot: Compare your original non- scenario technology choices from step 1 with the two technologies identified as most robust here.3. Would you change your strategic technology choice now? If yes, what is the specific change? Why does the scenario analysis force this change? 4. Contingent risk management: For any technology that proved non-robust but required to invest, what mitigation strategy would you implement? 5. Monitoring the future environment: We cannot predict the future. For each of the four scenarios, identify one specific leading indicator (a “signpost”) that would signal that the future scenario is starting to unfold.Technology focus areaGuiding questionsScenario 1: Fragmented innovation Scenario 2: Interoperable prosperity Scenario 3: Tiered world by tech Scenario 4: Techno-national standoff AI for supply chain visibilityWould AI systems still deliver accurate and trusted insights across borders for all? Trust and credibility technologies (e.g. DLT, digital identities)Do distributed ledger technologies maintain transparency and trust across diverse regulatory and political environments? Digital trade finance platformsDo digital finance systems remain interoperable and efficient across borders in this scenario? Works well Requires adaptation Vulnerable The TradeTech Paradox: Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 33