The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

Introduction: on the frontline of climate change in the Sahel In the Sahel, communities are on the frontline of the climate crisis. The dryland ecosystems surrounding the Sahel are some of the most vulnerable to climate change in the world, with temperatures rising 1.5 times faster than global averages.4 Approximately 80% of people in the region depend on agriculture.5 In 2023, the combined effects of climate change and conflict left 6.3 million people food insecure,6 with over 150 million people across Africa struggling to meet basic food needs.7 By 2050, climate shocks could send an additional 13.5 million people into poverty.8 The Sahel’s Great Green Wall initiative (GGW) is an ambitious movement. Led by the African Union and launched in 2007, it spans 8,000 kilometres across the Sahel and involves 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Sudan. The initiative aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land and create 10 million green jobs by 2030. In an area where desertification poses one of the most severe risks for population displacement, the GGW is an essential initiative for restoring forests, vegetation, biodiversity and land fertility, while improving food security and climate resilience.9 However, progress has been slow, with only around 18% of the GGW’s restoration activities completed by the end of 2020, 13 years after its launch.10 Carbon finance, driven by private sector investment, could provide a crucial tool to overcome the GGW funding gap by delivering resources directly to local communities at the frontline of the climate crisis. In its 2024 report,11 the African Carbon Market Initiative stated: “With voluntary carbon credits valued at roughly $2 billion globally and potentially growing 5-50x by 2030, high-integrity carbon markets could provide significant benefits to African people and be a critical source of climate finance for the continent.” However, carbon project investment in the Sahel has been slow to date, partially due to a challenging environmental and political context. A key recommendation from the World Economic Forum’s The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Value Chains report12 was to gain a clearer understanding of the region’s carbon potential. To help unlock investment for GGW countries, this white paper responds to the opportunities and requirements in the region, by providing an analysis of the voluntary carbon market potential of these countries and offering solutions to some of the investment challenges.Progress in achieving sustainable Great Green Wall impacts has been slow since its launch in 2007, but greater carbon project investment in the Sahel could change this. The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 6 The Great Green Wall initiative aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land and create 10 million green jobs by 2030.