The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

1 Carbon finance is an essential pathway to unlock private sector investment in GGW countries. However, it is currently under-utilized. Recent years have seen strong global growth in demand and prices for VCM credits, in particular nature- based carbon removal credits,13 with market demand expected to continue growing strongly (see Figure 1). Globally, while year-on-year prices for overall carbon credits fell in 2023 in response to market criticisms,14 prices for more highly regarded afforestation, reforestation and revegetation15 (ARR) projects increased from $12.05 to $15.74.16 This upward trend speaks to a growing recognition of the importance of high-integrity removal credits.17 These prices are expected to continue rising, with BloombergNEF predicting that prices for removals- based carbon credits could reach $146 per tonne by 2030 and $172 per tonne by 2050.181.1 Sahel voluntary carbon market opportunityUntapped investment opportunities in GGW Untapped investment opportunities in the Great Green Wall could bring positive impacts for people, biodiversity and the climate. Global carbon credit market size projections under different scenarios ($ billions) FIGURE 1 Bain BCG ICVCM McKinsey Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley2022 2030100 100 50 50 10-40 15-30 25x to 50x Notes: Projections may differ significantly depending on a number of varied future pathways to decarbonization. BCG = Boston Consulting Group, ICVCM = Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market Source: Africa Carbon Markets Initiative.19 The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 7