The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

Between 2018 and 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) led a major land-use data collection and analysis study, known as the Africa Open D.E.A.L (data for environment, agriculture and land).22 Working in collaboration with the African Union Commission, the Pan African Agency of the GGW and national stakeholders, the aim was to identify the carbon sequestration potential of GGW intervention zones, as identified by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and provide a consistent basis for the Nationally Determined Contributions of countries in the region. The FAO study’s analysis of the Sahel zones, comprising 241.3 million hectares (Mha) found the potential net carbon gain23 to be 0.799 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (tCO2e) – net of 1.18 billion tonnes lost from soil organic carbon stocks.24In its own analysis of the potential unrealized carbon across the Great Green Wall,25 conducted specially for this report, Tree Aid began by looking within the total administrative boundaries of the 11 GGW countries, excluding non-dryland locations as defined by Köppen-Geiger climatic zones26 (see Figure 2). The analysis identified potential areas of carbon sequestration eligible for the voluntary carbon market (i.e. investible carbon from the private sector perspective). Tree Aid’s analysis was restricted to those areas under stable land uses over the past 10 years. This is a key VCM eligibility criterion, as it helps to avoid a perverse incentive that could drive reforestation of land that was deliberately cleared in advance to take advantage of carbon payments. 1.2 Carbon sequestration potential In 2022, Ecosystem Market Place estimated the global transaction value for forestry and land carbon credits at $1.1 billion.20 There are currently 1,395 registered VCM projects in Africa, but despite the growing demand and price for carbon removal projects, only 74 of these are attributed to nature-based solutions, in particular afforestation, reforestation and revegetation projects, with just 11 of these in GGW countries.21 Nevertheless, with the growing demand for high-integrity ARR removals credits, there is an opportunity for further voluntary carbon market investment in GGW countries.Image credit: Tree Aid The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 8 Only 74 of the 1,395 VCM projects registered in Africa are attributed to nature-based solutions.