The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

Based on this analysis, Tree Aid estimates that 24.31 Mha are available in desert, arid and tropical savannah zones of GGW countries for VCM projects such as afforestation, reforestation and revegetation – offering an estimated 1.81 billion additional tonnes of CO2e storage in forests, cropland and grasslands and by reclaiming bare land. The estimate was further verified through a hectare-by-hectare comparison with potential growth rate data from Tree Aid’s voluntary carbon projects, indicating that this figure is a well-supported, conservative estimate. This could result in a carbon asset valued at $28 billion at the 2023 market price of $15.74 for ARR carbon credits, a figure that is predicted to increase significantly over the coming decade.27 The potential carbon removal highlighted by Tree Aid encompasses a diverse range of restoration interventions that should be based on current land uses to avoid land conversion. Areas which have high potential in above-ground biomass would benefit from reforestation in community-led voluntary carbon market projects, whereas areas with high potential for soil organic carbon29 would be better suited to agricultural land management and improved grassland management30 (see Figure 3).Carbon sequestration potential across GGW countries FIGURE 2 Koppen Geiger Climate Zones Unrealised potential carbon storage (t carbon per hectare) Carbon sequestration potential across countries of the Great Green Wall (billion tonnes CO2e)0.1 - 5 5 - 15 15 - 25 25 - 35 35 - 45 45 - 65 65 - 75 75 - 85 85 - 95 >95Tropical savannah Hot arid desert Hot arid steppe Nigeria12.318.41 3.372.65 1.91 1.64 1.51 1.42 1.070.13 0.014 Ethiopia Mali Burkina FasoSenegal Niger Chad Mauritania Sudan Eritrea Djibouti Source: Tree Aid.28 The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 9 24.31 Mha are available in desert, arid and tropical savannah zones of GGW countries for VCM projects – offering an estimated 1.81 billion additional tonnes of CO2e storage.