Transforming Urban Logistics 2024

1.2 The need for change The impact of the growing number of delivery vehicles on congestion and carbon emissions was modelled across the six city archetypes under a business-as-usual scenario. In a business-as-usual scenario, delivery vehicles could rise by 61% by 2030 across all cities. Carbon emissions from deliveries are also expected to rise on average by 60% by 2030 globally, making up approximately 54% of the transport sector’s emissions and 13% of overall city emissions. This increase would be detrimental to public health, raise healthcare costs by 12% and lead to a 14% rise in congestion. Drivers could therefore face an extra five minutes in their daily commute, while delivery vehicles might lose up to 34 additional minutes to congestion each day. Annually, this would result in up to 30 hours of lost productivity per passenger vehicle and more than 200 hours per delivery vehicle. Financial impact of business-as-usual BOX 1 Modelling analysis indicates that a business-as-usual approach will impose a significant financial burden on delivery companies. By 2030, London-based delivery operators are projected to incur up to $540 million in collective non-compliance penalties related to low-emission zones and an additional $520 million in congestion charges. Simultaneously, Seoul-based operators are expected to potentially face $180 million in fines for low-emission zone violations. The industry will also need to contend with fines for parking violations. Collectively, these charges are projected to account for approximately 9% of delivery costs in London and 12% of delivery costs in Seoul. Defining “business as usual” A “business-as-usual” scenario models the impact of continuous growth in the number of deliveries on the city, taking into consideration the ongoing interventions such as the gradual shift towards EVs. Transforming Urban Logistics: Sustainable and Efficient Last-Mile Delivery in Cities 9