Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025

Trucking logistics providers, especially those operating within global markets, therefore navigate a dense constellation of programmes without harmonized accounting, which complicates credit trading and offtake structuring for multinational fleets. Mobility sectors, particularly those operating across global supply chains, share a common challenge derived from asynchronous policy certainty – even with many strong local anchors, disparate global coordination is difficult to navigate. The combined effect is a patchwork of demand floors without ceilings: enough to justify early projects, but generally insufficient for requisite scaling-up. The shipping sector is emerging as the policy prototype for a globalized compliance market in which the obligation spans jurisdictions. Its success will need to be considered in determining whether this approach is feasible across neighbouring industrial mobility sectors. Infrastructure is a governor of growth During supplier interviews across each sector – aviation, shipping and trucking – infrastructure readiness emerged as a shared determinant of scale. Technologies for low-carbon fuel production and zero-emissions mobility are advancing quickly, yet the systems that store, blend, transport, deliver and certify these fuels and electrons remain uneven and sometimes lag behind demand. Across mobility, infrastructure – from tanks, blending and bunkering to charging and grid connections – strongly influences the near-term limit on volumes in each sector. In particular, mobility suppliers flagged first-mile and last-mile logistics as critical chokepoints – linking the fuel/energy production to the point of use. Whether that is SAF being delivered to airport hydrants, electricity and hydrogen to truck stops, or e-ammonia and e-methanol bunkering at ports, the absence of seamless integration with the legacy infrastructure of production, transport, storage and dispensing creates a frequent break in the chain. Across mobility, demand growth is not simply constrained by the premium of the clean alternative process, but by the capital, permitting and coordination needed to build the supporting network. Many suppliers likened this to “flying the airplane while building the airport”. Moreover, the required geography of infrastructure differs widely from sector to sector. Shipping requires bunkering at global port hubs and along major shipping lanes; trucking demands hubs at highway corridors, border crossings and terminals; aviation calls for fuel blending, delivery and storage off- and on- airports – all of which are vital nuances that must be considered.In summary, infrastructure is not simply a sector- specific issue – its opportunity and limitations are pervasive across the mobility sectors where creating solutions is just as important as demand signals. Financing opportunities and challenges Even when policies and infrastructure align, the transition to low-carbon supply is ultimately a capital-intensive endeavour. Across aviation, shipping and trucking, suppliers consistently recounted the following current and structurally similar financial findings: –Upfront capital intensity and stranded-asset risk: Building new plants, modifying refineries, installing tanks and pipelines and retrofitting vessels and trucks require large upfront capital before significant cash flows begin. While this can be mitigated via advanced offtake, milestone-based grants and concessional finance, the risk that shifts in policy, demand or technology may render assets partially stranded is a constant concern. –Uncertain offtake: Since compliance demand – through mandates, pricing or credits – is still evolving, offtake agreements are not fully guaranteed. Suppliers fear volume risk and buyer default. –Technical and operational risk: New technologies generally introduce engineering and performance risk, increasing perceived risks by lenders and requiring higher returns. –Currency, policy and regulatory risk: Particularly in global supply chains, suppliers face risks from policy changes, cross-border trade and tariffs, exchange rates and differing tax regimes. Conclusion Despite distinct regulatory and operational contexts, low-carbon mobility suppliers across aviation, shipping and trucking share some common challenges in policy alignment, infrastructure readiness and financing. Disparate policy frameworks globally and uneven infrastructure development currently limit the scalability of low- carbon solutions, while capital intensity and financial risks further constrain progress. However, coordinated approaches to policy design, infrastructure investment and financial structuring present significant opportunities to accelerate sector-wide decarbonization. By leveraging shared experiences and fostering cross-sector collaboration, the mobility ecosystem may move more rapidly towards scalable, viable low-carbon supply. Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 28