Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025

Page 27 of 79 · WEF_Turning_Challenge_into_Opportunity_2025.pdf

Mobility cross-sector – converging realities across low-carbon mobility suppliers1.4 Across the mobility ecosystem, suppliers face distinct emissions reduction pathways, but recurring themes emerge that cut across aviation, maritime and trucking alike. This chapter explores those cross-sector dynamics, highlighting shared structural challenges – including policy design, infrastructure readiness and financing constraints – that lead to prospective opportunities for coordinated solutions. The analysis intentionally remains high-level, respecting each sector’s unique regulatory and operational context while identifying common enablers that could accelerate progress collectively. By comparing experiences across these sectors, the goal is not to conflate them, but to illuminate where alignment could make the entire system move faster towards viable, scalable low- carbon supply. Policy-driven demand floors are globalizing – reach and shape vary by geography Across the mobility ecosystem, suppliers interviewed for this report characterized regulatory policy as a principal way to convert emissions reduction ambition into bankable demand. However, the consistency, durability and scope of policies diverge by sector and geography. The shipping sector has demonstrated global vision with the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) – a regulatory push to combine mandates on emissions limits and GHG pricing across an entire industry sector. While its realization was postponed by 12 months in a vote of MEPC IMO members in October 2025 – carrying significant impacts – the NZF nevertheless marks the sector’s ambition to transition from disparate policy coordination and voluntary efficiency schemes to a first-of-a-kind form of enforceable climate governance. By contrast, aviation and trucking suppliers described parallel but more geographically bounded trajectories – robust domestic and/or regional policies that seek to anchor demand but lack cross- border harmonization. In aviation, policy obligations are growing and mandates have reached operational specificity. Examples include the following: –European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation, mandating a minimum of 2% SAF share in all EU airports starting in 2025, increasing to 70% SAF in all EU airports from 2050.73 –Japan stated its objective for SAF to reach a minimum of 10% of airline jet fuel by 2030.74 –Singapore’s Ministry of Transport introduced the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) Amendment Bill, which imposes a levy on departing flights to facilitate SAF usage, passed in October 2025.75 In trucking, regulatory drivers are growing increasingly sustainability-orientated but are still regional and mixed in design. For example, the EU’s revised tightening of CO2-emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles and its extension of ETS2 to road transport from 2027 create a carbon price signal, but not yet a coordinated fuel or fleet mandate.76,77 At the same time, emerging national low-carbon fuel standards and renewable-fuel quotas, seen in regions such as Scandinavia, Latin America and parts of East Asia, sustain localized demand for renewable diesel, biomethane and hydrogen, but do not translate into a cross- border compliance market in which many logistics providers operate. Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 27
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