Taken together, the economic playbook for electrification can be pragmatic, not theoretical: lock in utilization, orchestrate charging to slash peaks, buy off-peak and support tightening policy to close the TCO gap – because the trucks typically save on energy and maintenance when they are moving and the rest is sequencing lanes, sites and tariffs to keep them moving. Insight: The critical role of partnerships and policy Across interviews, suppliers converged on a simple operational sentiment: medium- and heavy-duty electrification scales up as a shared-risk programme, not as a sequence of siloed procurements. According to these suppliers, the partnerships they value are those that couple vehicle roadmaps and diagnostics access (from OEMs) to utility-backed sites and interconnection plans (from charging providers/utilities) and to anchored lane commitments (from shippers), so that power, places and predictable demand come online together. Suppliers pointed to “coalition” models that map to real corridors rather than aspirational dots on a slide – such as MAN and E.ON’s cross-border build-out, on path to equal roughly 170 locations – which together create concrete waypoints around which route design and utilization plans can be built.65 Right now, the overall capital cost remains high when compared to the cost of purchasing a conventional diesel fleet. Without sustained policy support and programmes like ARENA, it’s difficult to de-risk early projects and accelerate the transition at scale. We anticipate the cost to acquire a BEV fleet to reduce in line with increased demand, especially as 2nd and 3rd generation BEV fleets enter the market in the near future. Shaun O’Flaherty, Global Head of Products & Solutions, Toll Group Policy is seen by many of those interviewed as a key factor – useful for underwriting early sites and shifting long-run costs, but too variable to “hard-code” without contingencies. Given the disparate global landscape, electrification policies will look different across countries and regions. For example, Australia’s ARENA seeks to de-risk early heavy-duty electrification via its Driving the Nation focus areas; it recently issued a grant for AU$12.3 million to Mondo Power to build the country’s first shared electric-truck hub in Melbourne.66 Meanwhile, The EU’s ETS2 will price road-transport fuels upstream from 2027, with a built-in option to postpone to 2028 if energy prices are exceptionally high, so that teams model timing risk rather than assuming a single start date.67,68 In parallel, the EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) sets mandatory targets for truck-capable recharging along the TEN-T network and at safe/ secure parking areas, creating a planning scaffold for where public charging should progressively materialize.69,70 Suppliers also highlighted the complexity of contradictory regulatory signals in some regions, such as the EU. For example, while CO2 standards and AFIR push zero-emission trucks, current weight and axle rules, in certain locations, can still penalize battery-electric payloads, eroding the business case on weight-limited lanes. Generally, today’s framework still grants a constrained threshold limit for zero-emission combinations without increasing the drive-axle limit, which can blunt the benefit for heavier battery packs.71 However, the European Parliament took steps to address this, by backing a revision of the Weights & Dimensions Directive in March 2024. This proposed up to +4 tonnes for ZEVs and additional axle flexibility, but implementation and cross- border harmonization remain in motion, which many logistics providers view as a practical risk to near-term utilization and revenue.72 Conclusion On the weight of evidence and with many suppliers’ operating realities in view, electrification emerges as a scalable near-term pathway, but its advantage is conditional rather than absolute. Its economics and reliability improve rapidly when lanes are repeatable, charging is orchestrated as a system (not a site) and interconnection is planned alongside vehicle orders. However, when these conditions slip, the TCO edge softens and confidence erodes. The slope of adoption is therefore a function of utilization discipline, grid and siting readiness and policy considerations – each a moving part with real sensitivity. If these contributing factors line up, many suppliers expect their electrification to transition from pilots to durable programmes on core corridors. If they do not, scale will lag – not because these suppliers’ trucks cannot perform, but because the surrounding system is not sequenced to let them. Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 26

Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025