Emerging opportunities and enabling levers Converging on “3.0 by 2030” as a credible anchor Technical roadmaps are converging around a near-term 3.0 tCO2e/t target (cradle-to-gate, including power and refining). Suppliers consistently maintained that the 3-tonne target is deliverable this decade with retrofits to refining and smelting, and with cleaner power – but only if buyers send the demand signals. That narrative gives purchasers and financiers a concrete stepwise trajectory: 3.0 tCO2e/t this decade, 2.0 in the 2030s for existing assets and sub-2.0 for new builds with inert anodes and CCS. 3.0 we can achieve with present technology… for 2.0, then we need carbon capture. Supplier interviewee Carbon intensity-based procurement – move from “% recycled” to “tCO2e/kg Al” The industry should adopt standardized, third party-verified environmental production declarations (EPDs) or product greenhouse gas disclosures that report cradle-to-gate intensity. These calculations must use consistent boundaries (including the entire bauxite > alumina > smelting > casting process), while defining the share of post- consumer scrap. Existing guidance, such as IAI’s product-level carbon footprint methodology,127 can reduce ambiguity and enable consistent evaluation across suppliers. Buyers could potentially set target bands (e.g. ≤3.0 or ≤2.0 tCO2e/t) rather than single points and align them with contract price escalators.128 Buyers could potentially set target bands (e.g. ≤3.0 or ≤2.0 tCO2e/t) rather than single points and align them with contract price escalators. Clarify CBAM boundaries and recognition Suppliers proposed aligning the EU’s and UK’s approaches to measure and include indirect emissions and alumina refining. In the EU, suppliers urged clarity on the timeline and methodology for including indirect emissions and for recognizing carbon costs already paid in producer countries. In the UK, the government’s intent to price both direct and indirect emissions should be paired with robust mechanisms to recognize clean power procurement and upstream carbon cost exposure. Done properly, convergence would reward genuinely low- carbon metal and avoid arbitrage.129 Power-contract innovation as a decarbonization lever Since electricity dominates both cost and footprint, aluminium offtake should be coupled with power offtake solutions (e.g. sleeved PPAs). The objective is to hedge power-price risk and to lock in the carbon reduction benefits that buyers are paying for. IEA’s analysis reinforces that power-sector decarbonization is inseparable from aluminium’s low-carbon trajectory.130Strategic recommendations For purchasers and OEMs –Set explicit, carbon-intensity thresholds in RFQs, disclose the boundary (cradle-to-gate) and specify minimum post-consumer shares with measurement guidance. –Replace “% recycled” as the headline proxy with intensity-plus-scrap and book into multi- year offtakes that index price premiums to recognized carbon prices (EU ETS, UK ETS) and certified intensity reductions. –Build internal coherence by aligning sustainability targets with procurement scorecards – supplier interviews suggest the gap between C-suite intent and RFQ language is a prime blocker today. Supplier interviews suggest the gap between C-suite intent and RFQ language is a prime blocker today. Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 42

Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025