Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025

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Aviation – scaling-up SAF: infrastructure integration, bottlenecks and future readiness1.1 Introduction Many commercial aviation stakeholders face an urgent dual market directive: meet a projected doubling of passenger demand by 2050 while delivering on net-zero commitments. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is widely viewed as one of the largest decarbonization levers currently available to aviation. SAF is able to significantly cut lifecycle emissions compared with conventional Jet-A kerosene. Yet today, SAF represents less than 0.1% of global jet fuel supply.2 Several SAF production facilities have reached final investment decision (FID) and are now progressing towards construction or are already producing sustainable fuels. However, a number of low-carbon fuel projects across different regions were paused or cancelled in 2025.3,4 These start/stop developments underscore the complexities of scaling-up emerging technologies while maintaining commercial viability. Bridging that gap from kilotonne-scale pilots to multi-megatonne production hinges not only on breakthrough conversion technologies but, critically, on the infrastructure ecosystem that moves feedstock to refineries, blends SAF with conventional fuel, certifies quality, stores it safely and delivers it to aircraft wings. Yet producers and buyers face challenges across the value chain – both in the logistics of integrating SAF from gate to wing and in understanding how renewable fuel production can be optimally integrated within existing fuel systems. While the Forum’s February 2025 report, Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Case Studies and Implications for Investment, offers a comprehensive analysis of the production challenges faced by suppliers, this chapter examines the distinct obstacles present at the next stages of the value chain – specifically, the complexities involved in scaling-up SAF delivery to aircraft centres, including both upstream and downstream operations.5 Upstream, feedstock security and availability can affect the techno-economic feasibility of SAF production. Downstream, an increasing number of SAF project developers are facing a range of challenges when accessing both off-airport blending and distribution networks and on-airport storage, quality control and delivery systems. This results in one clear imperative: the need to unlock access to infrastructure. <0.1% proportion of SAF in global jet fuel supply today. Scaling high-integrity SAF production depends on overcoming barriers related to SAF blending, storage and transport infrastructure and doing so in a way that complies with safety and product quality specifications. Restricted access to these critical links in the supply chain limits competition and increases costs for delivered SAF. Dan Johnson, Managing Director, World Energy The complex realities faced by prospective SAF producers have often been overlooked, as market conversations tend to focus on SAF availability, price and policy rather than pragmatic barriers preventing the deployment of SAF’s full potential. Following critical conversations with leading SAF fuel producers, this section aims to amplify their voices and perspectives and highlight their pivotal role in scaling-up supply. The next section explores the infrastructure and market conditions necessary for their success, with an overview of the upstream SAF supply chain and a more detailed analysis of the downstream supply chain. Aviation contributes 2.5% of global CO2e emissions.1 Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 6
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