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Jackson County�s economy shines By Shari Downhill The nation�s economy may be slowing, but Southern Oregon is in better shape than most other areas, a leading economic consultant told Jackson County�s business leaders Monday. In the face of a sluggish economy, Jackson County continues to make gains in employment, a leading economic indicator, John Mitchell said. Mitchell is a member of the Western Blue Chip Forecast panel, the Life Flight Consortium governing board, and is a trustee of Aquila Cascadia Equity Fund and the Tax Free Trust of Oregon. He is a former Boise State University economics professor. Mitchell analyzed current economic indicators and forecast future trends during a forum at Rogue Valley Country Club. The event was sponsored by U.S. Bank and The Chamber of Medford/Jackson County. Citing a monthly economic analysis generated by Arizona State University researchers, Mitchell said Medford ranks as the 19th-fastest growing metropolitan area in the nation, well ahead of Portland in 144th place. Eugene ranked 244th and Salem ranked 252nd. Pointing to similar historic periods, Mitchell said a weakening economy is a natural occurrence, following cycles of growth and decline. The current "softening" economy is likely a transition period in a 10-year long era of economic growth, Mitchell said. The downturn that began last year is the first decline since 1991. Still, January employment figures show an increase in payroll figures by 268,000 jobs. "That�s a rise," he said, "not a decline." Mitchell compares the current economic environment to 1966, 1986 and 1995, when extended "expansion" periods were interrupted by a temporary slump. "We had years where growth slowed significantly in response to short-term cyclical (events)," he said. "But it never turned into a recession. (Slumps) are not unprecedented." The end of the 1990s and beginning of the 2000s will be one of most "dramatic, exciting" periods that future generations will look back to in terms of economic significance, Mitchell said. "I�m convinced in maybe 15, 20, or 30 years, people will look back and talk about the 1990s as much as earlier generations refer to the 1960s or the 1920s. Those were periods of buoyant U.S. economic activity," Mitchell said. Warnings of a recession are just that, he said � a warning that the economy has shifted, not plummeted as many have feared. "Think back six months ago," he said of the suddenness of Federal Reserve recession worries. "Was anybody talking about a recession in 2001?" A drop in the region�s manufacturing sector associated with skyrocketing energy costs accounts for much of the overall economic slowing throughout Oregon. "Manufacturing in Oregon is much more important (to overall economic health) than it is nationally," he said. "Manufacturing accounted for over a fourth of Oregon�s overall output in 1998, compared to 17 percent nationally and 13 percent for Washington." Elements that have worked to slow the national economy include Federal Reserve monetary policy reacting to inflationary pressures, the current energy crisis, fiscal policy and classic demand and supply cycles, Mitchell maintained. Reach reporter Shari Downhill at 776-4463, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.