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Lots of looking, not much buying Year's biggest shopping day won't come for weeks The Washington Post It's known to retailers as Black Friday, because the day after Thanksgiving once marked the day each year they became profitable. Avid shoppers will pack stores today in the early hours to grab discounted toasters, toys and clothing. But don't let the hype fool you. The Friday after Thanksgiving hasn't been the biggest shopping day of the year for decades, industry observers said. Last year, estimated retail sales on the post-turkey day even sagged slightly, sinking the day's ranking to seventh place from fifth in 1996, according to a survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Although mobs of people do pack the stores on the day after Thanksgiving, many of them spend little. Industry observers say this shopping holiday has slowly evolved into more of a day for many to browse and chitchat. Many shoppers will be simply "looking, getting ideas and enjoying the day," said John Konarski, research director for the International Council of Shopping Centers. "You have to remember that the day before, almost nothing was open," he said. "They were inside the house. They ate too much. And they were with relatives they didn't want to be with. "On Friday, you escape." Don't think retailers aren't trying, though. In an annual game of chicken between retailers and consumers, merchants want to entice you into buying your holiday gifts right now, rather than waiting until the Saturday before Christmas, which has become the truly No. 1 shopping day of the year; but many shoppers figure they longer they hold out, the better the markdowns they'll find. "Consumers expect discounts, and they know if they wait long enough, that the merchants will blink first," said Kenneth Gassman Jr., an analyst with Davenport & Co. "And the consumers always win the waiting game; the merchants have taught them to be smart." But true bargain hunters aren't even waiting for the holiday lights. They're picking up Christmas and Hanukah gifts in February, when retailers deeply slash prices on slow-moving merchandise, or at special summer sales such as Nordstrom's July bonanza. A survey at an outlet mall showed that 5 percent of customers surveyed in sweltering August were shopping for the winter holidays, Konarski said. Some 14 percent of customers planned to complete at least half of their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, according to a survey by the Gallup Poll and the shopping center group. Still, in the Washington, D. C. area, a few savvier-than-thou shoppers scanned the promotions in Thursday's newspapers and then drove to discount stores open on Thanksgiving Day to prepare their Friday strategies. "It's all mapped out," said Patricia Nguyen, who was shopping at the Kmart in suburban Chantilly, Va. and planned to return early Friday. "I will come here first and then Wal-Mart and then the other stores." It's customers like Nguyen _ the troopers, the mavens and the Sunday-morning coupon-clippers _ who have helped fuel the myth that the day after Thanksgiving remains the biggest spending day of the year. And the story persists, year after year, despite attempts by industry experts and retailers to correct it. "It has been one of the longest-lasting myths in retail," said Nancy Chistolini, a spokeswoman for Hecht's, a Washington department store. "People will still talk about it. Even the media, they'll call and ask, `Is it still the busiest day?' That's because it's a great story to write about. And who wants to let it go?" While today might not be the biggest sales day, it's still significant to retailers seeking a barometer of customer's willingness to spend. This year, there are few naysayers. First Union economist Mark Vitner expects holiday sales to rise 5.5 percent above last year's levels. Most analysts and retail groups expected retail sales to rise between 4 percent and 7 percent this holiday shopping season compared to the last. "To me, the day after Thanksgiving is like the start of the Kentucky Derby," said Bob Burton, Kmart Corp.'s investor relations director. "We all wait with bated breath to see how the race starts." Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1998, Medford, Oregon USA