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CLIMATE CHANGE Medford could be the next Redding Forecasters at local climate change conference say this past summer could become the norm Comment By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Oct. 13, 2015 at 3:22 PM Updated Oct 13, 2015 at 3:24 PM By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Oct. 13, 2015 at 3:22 PM Updated Oct 13, 2015 at 3:24 PM » Social News Philip Mote says the Rogue Valley's summer of 2015 could become the standard for much of the Pacific Northwest in about 30 years, complete with the heat, fierce wildfires and dismal snowpack. "This year is, in some ways, an example of what we could see decades in the future becoming more normal," says Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and professor at Oregon State University's College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. "Very low snowpack, big wildfires, problems with irrigation water supply, things like that." Mote was a keynote speaker at the Southern Oregon Climate Action Now's conference, which was held this week at the Inn At The Commons in downtown Medford. The event, "Our Critical Climate: Trends, Impact and Solutions — A Rogue Basin Summit," continues today. The event website, http://socanclimatesummit.info , says the conference's purpose is to "inspire actions that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the regional level and help communities prepare for inevitable regional climate change consequences." Climatologists, meteorologists, professors and government officials — including U.S. senators Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden, scheduled to speak Wednesday morning — made up the list of presenters. Much of the information imparted focused on the impacts of rising global temperatures on a local scale. Ryan Sandler of the National Weather Service says average annual temperatures in Medford have trended up by about 2.5 degrees since 1912. Ashland saw close to the same amount, with data stretching back to 1895. Grants Pass, meanwhile, has seen a gradual rise of more than four degrees, that data also stretching back to 1895. While average yearly precipitation rates have mostly plateaued during the same time period in Medford, snowfall has gone from almost nine inches a year in the early 1900s to about 3.5 inches currently. "I believe that little bit of warming we've had has been the difference between rain and snow," Sandler says. "When it does snow here, we're usually right on the threshold of rain and snow, so I think that is a really good indicator of the warming." Forecast models show the warming trend is expected to continue — anywhere between 5 and 9 degrees by the year 2100, Sandler adds. "If you took the middle of that, say seven degrees Fahrenheit, Medford would then have the climate of Redding, Calif.," Sandler says. "That would be toward the end of the century. Temperature-wise, we'd become Redding." That added heat, he says, would likely raise area snow levels anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 feet. "That's a huge difference for not just the ski area, but the snowpack and the runoff," Sandler says. Mote says the three main areas of risk from continued climate change in the Pacific Northwest are snowpack, coastal impacts such as erosion and rising sea levels, and forest mortality from drought, forest fires and insect attacks. "These are things that our science tells us will become increasingly a problem in the future, but they're also things that we've already observed, too," Mote says. The warming trend is expected to continue, he adds, but efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in the U.S. in recent years have started to show results. CO2 levels are down about 11 percent since 2007, when the levels peaked, he adds. Those efforts are expected to continue, too. "The U.S. target is to reduce emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025," Mote says, adding the downward trend in Oregon began about eight years earlier. "Emissions in Oregon are down about 16 percent since that peak." The key to building on the CO2 improvements is getting China and India on board, because emissions levels will continue to rise worldwide despite U.S. efforts, he says. "One of the ways that we solve it is by influencing the rest of the world to take it seriously." Reach reporter Ryan Pfeil at 541-776-4468 or [email protected] . Follow him at www.twitter.com/ryanpfeil . By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune Posted Oct. 13, 2015 at 3:22 PM Updated Oct 13, 2015 at 3:24 PM » Comment or view comments Reader Reaction » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. Southern Oregon Directory Featured Businesses Loading... 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