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New math: $480 a student Projected budget shortfall has education leaders doing their homework By DAMIAN MANN Education officials denounced new warnings that up to $16 million in budget cuts could hit Jackson County schools next year as Oregon wrestles with ways to alleviate a $700 million state budget shortfall. The Confederation of Oregon School Administrators will send a letter to all school districts in the state telling them to brace for a reduction in revenues of 9 percent under a worst-case scenario. This amounts to an average loss of $480 for each student at schools throughout the state. A budget cut of this magnitude, spawned by a worsening economy that has generated fewer taxes, would lead to massive layoffs, increased class sizes, reductions in programs or possibly a shortened school year. Job losses at some school districts, like Medford, would also have a ripple effect, since every education dollar spent generates $2 for the local economy. "We are the second or third largest employer in Jackson county; what'll that do to the economy?" asked Medford school board member Peggy Penland. "Schools are scared," she said. "It's going to hurt. People aren't going to be happy." She is particularly upset that concerned citizens and government officials spent years devising a Quality Education Model that meticulously defines how schools should be organized and funded, and this is now in jeopardy. "I was looking at the QEM and thinking, what a joke," she said. "We've spent all this time getting all the kids to these wonderful standards. I hope whoever has to cut those budgets keeps this in mind. These numbers are about young lives. These numbers have faces on them." Penland and school officials throughout the state have urged the government to use up contingency funds, tobacco money and other revenue sources as a one-time measure to maintain education funding. In the meantime, school organizations are urging the governor and Legislature to consider establishing other sources that stabilize school funding. Chuck Bennett, director of government relations at the Confederation of Oregon School Administrators, said the warning letter that will be going out to superintendents will give them some idea of what to expect next year. "We have to deliver a worst-case scenario," he said. "There is just a lot of guessing going on right now." Even this scenario could get worse still, as the state refines its revenue projections. Just the other day, Bennett said administrators were working on the assumption that schools could lose $460 for each student, then that number jumped to $480. So far, the reaction has been one of disbelief. "People are speechless about it," he said. "It's kind of shocking." Ashland schools, which were preparing for a reduction in expenses of up to $1 million next year, would now be saddled with an additional $1.8 million if the state makes its cuts. Terry Littleton, Ashland school board chair, said, "People don't understand the severity of this," she said. "The news just keeps getting worse and worse." However, she said the crisis could stimulate public furor that could bring about a change in the way schools are funded. The Phoenix-Talent School District was already expecting to cut expenses by $250,000 to $300,000 next year, resulting in a loss of six positions. Superintendent Ben Bergreen said, "The bottom line is if those facts turn out to be true, it will be very difficult for schools, and for kids." Nancy Heiligman, director of school finance for the Oregon Department of Education, said the potential cuts amount to a wiping out of a planned 4 percent cost-of-living pay increase next year, plus an additional 5 percent reduction in funding. "It really becomes a 9 percent cut," she said. These numbers are based on schools absorbing a proportional share of the $700 million shortfall, which amounts to about $300 million. "It's really going to be devastating to do that," she said. Other agencies throughout the state have been gearing up for cuts this year that could range from 2 to 10 percent. But, this latest warning means schools will end up absorbing all the costs in the second year of the biennial budget. Medford schools Superintendent Steve Wisely said, "I think the level of cuts will hurt deeply." But he urged caution in putting too much stock in any calculations at this point, preferring to wait until the state comes up with firmer numbers in March. Wisely said any calculations at this point wouldn't include an expected 2 percent increase in enrollment in his district. "We don't want to upset our system and our community with something that may not happen," he said. His district, which already made staff cuts this year resulting in bigger class sizes, could be severely impacted if the governor and Legislature decided to put the shortfall on the back of public education. "We have cut significantly and we have still maintained some semblance of quality education in this district," he said. Central Point schools Superintendent Candy Manary said, "We can't absorb a cut like that without making drastic changes." Manary anticipates that these could lop off more than $2 million out of the district's $27 million budget. She also urged caution concerning the new warnings. "Until they actually say this will happen, we don't want to over-react," she said. Reach reporter Damian Mann at 776-4476, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.