Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

4 Figure 1. Emissions based on BAU assumptions Emission Reduction Scenarios To assess how changes in local policies and activities could influence the city’s greenhouse gas emissions, we modeled potential emission reductions associated with various infrastructure and behavior changes. Specifically, we estimated emissions reductions associ ated wi th the changes listed in Table 4 below. Table 4. Behavior and policy changes that were modeled for the emissi on reduction scenario s Building Energy  Reduced energy use by 50% through energy efficiency and conservation measures.  Shifted 50% of grid electricity consumption to distributed renewable energy generation.  Transitioned 90% of natural gas used in buildings to electricity. Transportation  Shifted 25% of motorized travel to walking or biking.  For the remaining motorized travel: o Shifted 80% of private vehicles to electric vehicles. o Shifted 50% of commercial vehicles to electric vehicles. Consumption Reduced co nsumption -related emissions by 30% through activities such as product reuse, reducing meat consumption, or introduction of a carbon tax on products and services. Note that probabilities were not assigned to the above -listed changes. The changes are inten ded simply to illustrate the connection between various policy/behavior changes and resulting greenhouse gas emission reductions. The exercise is not meant to predict future emissions reductions or estimate what is achievable in Ashland specifically. 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, METRIC TONSConsumption -based emissionsSector -based emissions