CASE STUDY 4 Ecosystem opportunity – battery recycling (continued) Battery recycling creates revenue opportunities for recyclers, manufacturers and automakers; it can also reduce costs for manufacturers once the input costs for recycled metals fall below virgin metals. The market is expected to grow significantly over the next decade, driven by a widening supply-demand gap for strategic metals and tightening regulation. As a cornerstone of electrification, batteries are highly reliant on costly and finite rare earth metals. The global lithium-ion battery market is projected to grow eight-fold from ~1,000 GWh in 2023 to ~8,000 GWh in 2035, with most growth coming from passenger electric vehicles.21 Without metal recovery, the market could face a supply deficit by 2030. The deficit depends on the specific metal constraint within battery cathodes but varies from 5-10% (copper) to 40-45% (cobalt). In addition, regulations in the US and EU incentivize battery recycling, by making OEMs the owners of end-of-life batteries and setting a minimum recycled content requirement in new batteries. The EU Battery Regulation, in force since 2023, requires manufacturers to progressively collect batteries from end users free of charge, sort battery types separately and meet recycled content targets for cobalt, lead, lithium and nickel. Moderate: Battery recycling technologies, such as pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy, are commercially available but still evolving to improve efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Large corporates such as BASF are investing in recycling facilities,22 with the Chinese battery recycling landscape already highly mature. Technology innovation continues to improve processes and drive down costs, including innovations by early-stage companies such as tozero and Cylib. High: Establishing battery recycling facilities requires significant investment into property, plant and equipment as well as in research and development. The profitability of battery recycling can be heavily influenced by fluctuations in the price of recovered materials, which can lead to uncertainty in capital returns. However, innovators are seeking ways to reduce the capital intensity of recycling operations. For example, BoTree Recycling uses patented low-cost chemical processes that reduce the cost of recycling by up to 40%; its systems are installed within shipping containers so they can be delivered within a week.23 Moderate: Battery recycling currently faces scalability constraints. Despite increasing public and governmental support for circular practices, greater regulatory alignment and market acceptance is required for the sector to accelerate its expansion. Battery recycling operates within a complex closed-loop value chain with diverse players. Waste managers (e.g. Veolia), recycling operators (e.g. BASF, tozero) and vehicle OEMs (e.g. BYD, Volkswagen) all need to collaborate to establish an effective circular supply chain. This multistakeholder model increases operational complexities, requiring coordinated efforts to establish offtake agreements. Currently, the cost of using virgin raw materials remains lower than recycled materials, which leads to variability in demand for recycled inputs. Additionally, a recent slowdown in the adoption of electric vehicles is reducing the volume of end-of-life batteries available for recycling. Policy-makers can help address some of these barriers to scale, including guaranteed feedstocks facilitated by time-bound obligations on manufacturers, regulator facilitated regional collection hubs, green public procurement frameworks and introducing “battery passports” to enable traceability. Technological/process maturityCapital intensity ScalabilityFinancial impact for equipment providers Revenue increase OpEx reduction CapEx reduction – – 31 50 Investible Opportunities for a New Nature Economy

50 Investible Opportunities for a New Nature Economy 2026