Conclusion Unlocking the potential of autonomous driving requires coordinated action across OEMs, suppliers, regulators and more. Vehicle autonomy is already on our roads, and it is poised to transform mobility. Scaling this technology, however, will take time – much longer than many earlier forecasts have suggested. Assisted (and not autonomous) systems, in particular L2 and L2+, are still expected to be the main technologies in most new personal vehicles sold in 10 years’ time. When it comes to L4 vehicles on public roads, it is robotaxis and autonomous trucks that will lead the way. Indeed, these vehicles are already deployed today in specific locations. Increased robotaxi adoption will depend on maturing the ecosystem and overcoming the high upfront costs. By 2035, our estimates suggest that up to 80 cities will have large-scale robotaxi services in place, most of these cities being located either in the US or China. The US is expected to lead the deployment of autonomous trucks, with Europe and China following. In the short term, autonomous trucks present the most profitable autonomous use case, driven by strong total cost of ownership advantages and efficiency gains, particularly in hub- to-hub deployments. The forecasts in this white paper provide industry, regulators and the public with a more realistic timeline for autonomous vehicle deployments. This insight supports informed decision-making on upcoming challenges, including developing infrastructure, reskilling workforces and encouraging public acceptance. Given the varying adoption timelines across regions, the white paper also highlights the leading geographies for each use case. Advances in vehicle autonomy offer not only greater efficiency and convenience but, most critically, the potential to significantly reduce road accidents – a pressing global problem that claims 1.2 million lives annually. The entire industry plays a vital role in safely scaling vehicle autonomy – a scenario that can only be achieved through extensive collaboration among stakeholders. This white paper outlines the broad ecosystem involved in this transition, detailing their roles and identifying key requirements that remain outstanding. Beyond OEMs and suppliers developing safe and reliable technology while transparently communicating its strengths and limitations, regulators must balance innovation with safety and promote harmonization across regions to avoid fragmentation. Additionally, related industries must establish fleet operations, insurance frameworks and charging networks. Autonomy is not a short-term race but a long-term transformation requiring sustained commitment and cross-sectoral cooperation. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 21

Autonomous Vehicles 2025