Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies 2026

Regulatory and technical risk Each CDR technology pathway faces unique scalability challenges based on political and technical risks: –Regulatory risk: DAC benefits from stable and supportive policies in countries and regions such as the US, where incentives like 45Q tax credits reduce investor uncertainty and encourage deployment. BECCS and biochar face significant regional variability in land-use and agricultural policies, complicating scalability in regions with inconsistent regulations. ERW depends heavily on land and environmental approvals, with substantial regional differences, particularly in marine or coastal areas where deployment faces additional regulatory hurdles. –Technical risk: DAC faces high technical barriers due to its energy intensity and reliance on immature technologies. Its scalability hinges on access to low-carbon energy and advances in energy efficiency. BECCS, while less complex than DAC, requires integration with biomass supply chains, introducing operational risks tied to feedstock availability and transport logistics. Biochar benefits from established processes and lower technical uncertainty, although its scalability may be constrained by land use and feedstock availability. ERW is straightforward to deploy but difficult to measure effectively, as CO2 capture in open systems varies significantly, raising questions about its long- term effectiveness. While it is too early to determine the “best” pathway, trade-offs exist. Biochar offers lower technical risk and is readily deployable, but DAC and BECCS provide greater long-term scalability potential, contingent on market and policy support. Comparison of risk impact (political and technical) by CDR pathway TABLE 5 DAC BECCS Biochar ERW Regulatory risk impact RationaleLow High Medium Low Primarily in stable countries and regions (e.g. US, EU) with clear regulations; incentives such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) reduce investor risk.11Biomass availability and regulations vary by region, especially with land-use and agricultural policies.Moderate risk from differing environmental and waste regulations across regions.Varies by region due to differences in regulatory acceptance and land/sea use approvals. Technical risk impact RationaleHigh Medium Low High Energy-intensive scalability challenges and advanced tech needs make cost and output less predictable.CO2 capture with biomass integration is simpler than DAC but still operationally complex.More mature technology with established processes and minimal reliance on untested systems.Deployment method is simple, but given open- system environment, effectively capturing and quantifying the CO2 captured is difficult.2.3 What will affect the scalability of these technologies? Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies: Market Overview and Offtake 17