Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

East Asia and the Pacific Growth expectations among chief economists surveyed were the second-highest overall for East Asia and the Pacific, with 45% of respondents anticipating strong growth and 55% expecting moderate growth in the year ahead. The World Bank projects that output in the region outside China will expand by 4.5% in 2026, still above the global average but slower than in recent years, as exports confront higher trade restrictions and softer global demand.67 US tariffs have caused a surge in Chinese exports to other countries in the region, with shipments to the six largest economies in South- East Asia increasing more than 23% this year.68 Respondents’ views on inflation in East Asia and the Pacific remain largely unchanged compared to September 2025: 56% of respondents expect moderate inflation, and 41% anticipate it to remain low in the year ahead. A majority of 61% expect monetary policy in East Asia and the Pacific to remain unchanged in the year ahead, while 32% expect it to become looser. In a fourth hike in a row, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, a three-decade high.69 Japan’s fiscal activism is expected to have a strong impact on the region’s medium-term outlook. Its government unveiled a record stimulus package worth over $135 billion, including fresh spending to cushion households from rising living costs, invest in strategic sectors and expand defence outlays.70 For East Asia and the Pacific, stronger Japanese demand and outbound investment are a welcome offset to tariff headwinds. Looking at the year ahead, 71% of chief economists surveyed expect fiscal policy to remain largely unchanged in the East Asia and the Pacific region. Figure 14: Monetary policy Looking at the year ahead, what is your expectation for monetary policy in the following geographies? Looser Unchanged Tighter East Asia and the Pacific 32 61 7 Latin America and the Caribbean 24 69 7 Central Asia 11 85 4 Middle East and North Africa 24 72 3 United States 91 63 Sub-Saharan Africa 19 81 South Asia 32 68 Europe 37 63 China 71 29 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). 18 Chief Economists’ Outlook January