Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

11Chief Economists Outlook As in previous surveys, the chief economists continue to highlight the growing importance of geopolitical and political factors as drivers of the economic outlook. Nearly all of those surveyed anticipate that political polarization will lead to further suboptimal economic decision-making this year (95%) and that economic nationalism will be an increasingly important economic driver (94%). This twin dynamic has been evident in a consistent recent pattern of global electoral discontent: in elections held in 2024, every governing party in developed economies lost vote share, often to parties espousing populist nationalism.11 As trade and investment flows increasingly align along evolving geopolitical fault lines, chief economists expect the pace of geoeconomic fragmentation to accelerate further this year (98%). Figure 6. Polarization, nationalism and fragmentation Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, do you agree/disagree with the following? The pace of geoeconomic fragmentation will accelerate Globally, political polarization will lead to suboptimal economic decision-making Economic nationalism will increasingly drive economic decision-making Share of respondents (%)Strongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree 3 3 5 55 393 24 7166 32 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). Figure 7. US in the remainder of 2025 Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong Very low Low Moderate High Very high Looser Unchanged Tighter Looser Unchanged TighterFiscal policyEconomic growth Monetary policyInflation 8 21 46 50 29 2123 317969 22 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April).Regional challenges North America 11 World Economic Forum. (2025a).