Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

21Chief Economists Outlook 2. An age of uncertainty Policy upheaval and coordination risks Uncertainty has become a defining feature of the global economic landscape, compounding the challenges already facing policy-makers and businesses, paralysing decision-making and heightening risks on policy coordination. Multiple global uncertainty indices have surged into uncharted territory, surpassing even the peaks observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.51 The latest survey of chief economists echoes this heightened sense of unpredictability. When asked to gauge current levels of uncertainty on a scale from very low to very high, 82% selected very high. Looking ahead, views are mixed: a small majority (56%) expected uncertainty to ease over the next year, but nearly half of respondents anticipated that uncertainty will remain at or above today’s extraordinary levels a year from now. Figure 19. Uncertainty now How would you characterize current levels of uncertainty? Current uncertainty Share of respondents (%)3 16 82Very low Low Average High Very high Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). Figure 20. Uncertainty in a year One year from now, how do you expect levels of uncertainty to compare to current levels? Much lower Somewhat lower Unchanged Somewhat higher Much higher Share of respondents (%)Uncertainty in a year 11 45 24 18 3 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). 51 Baker, S.R. et al. (2025); Ahir, H. et al. (2025).