Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Towards a new global economic order The global economy is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in decades, with a convergence of shocks and structural shifts rewriting the rules of growth, trade and governance. Evidence of change is everywhere. The US has stepped back from its post-war role as a free-market champion, China is flexing its economic muscle, Germany has abandoned fiscal restraint, India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy and Japan is navigating sustained inflation for the first time in a generation.67 Meanwhile, technological breakthroughs, trade realignments and waning support for global institutions are accelerating a reconfiguration of the economic order.68These are not isolated developments but interconnected forces shaping a new era of heightened uncertainty. This section draws on the latest World Economic Forum survey of chief economists to map the contours of this transition. Respondents were asked to assess nine pillars of the global economy (from trade and technology to fiscal policy and labour markets69), rating the level, duration and systemic impact of disruption in each. The results paint a striking picture: disruption is not only pervasive but widely expected to persist, with ripple effects across virtually all sectors and regions. The following sections explore these dynamics, highlighting the scale of change and the interconnected nature of today’s disruptions.2 Note: Chief economists were asked to rate the level and duration of disruption on a scale from 0 to 100 with five labelled segments of equal length. Data reported above are median values. Data reported in the rest of this chapter present the share of respondents (%) within segments. Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025).Very high High Moderate Low Very low Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term How long do you expect current disruption to last?Innovation, technology and data Natural resources, energy and environment Private consumption and demandPrivate investment and capital allocationPublic finances and fiscal policy Labour markets and human capitalGlobal economic institutionsTransformation Volatility Evolution StabilityHow do you rate the current level of disruption?Figure 7 : Disruption in the global economy Trade and global value chains Financial markets and monetary policy Chief Economists’ Outlook September 12