Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Central Asia Growth in Central Asia is expected to remain steady, with sentiment improving since April. More than three-quarters of surveyed chief economists anticipate moderate growth in the year ahead, while the share expecting weak growth has fallen by more than half. The region’s positive trajectory reflects ongoing market reforms in Uzbekistan, deeper regional cooperation, and stronger activity in Kazakhstan, prompting the Asian Development Bank to raise its 2025 growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia to 5.5%.66 Inflation expectations remain broadly unchanged, with 72% of respondents anticipating moderate inflation in the year ahead. Fiscal and monetary policy are also expected to hold steady, with more than 80% of surveyed chief economists forecasting no significant adjustments. Figure 6 : Monetary policy Looking at the year ahead, what is your expectation for monetary policy in the following geographies? Looser Unchanged Tighter 8515Europe Sub-Saharan AfricaUnited StatesCentral Asia China East Asia and the PacificSouth Asia Middle East and North Africa16 Latin America and the Caribbean36 60444 56 27 73 26 70414 815 26 747525 28 648 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook September 11