Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa The growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa has strengthened. While 29% of chief economists expect weak growth, 71% of respondents expect moderate or strong growth in the year ahead. The World Bank projects regional growth of 3.7% in 2025, rising to an average of 4.2% over 2026-2027, assuming a stable external environment, easing inflation and fewer conflicts.58 With new US tariffs of 10-30% introduced on 7 August across many countries in the region, earlier projections have to be interpreted with caution.59 Inflation remains a concern, though pressures are moderating. Seventy-six percent of chief economists surveyed expect moderate inflation in the year ahead, even as disinflation stalled in early 2025 due to rising food prices.60 Fiscal policy is expected to hold steady, with three-quarters of respondents expecting no significant changes, though the share expecting tighter conditions in the year ahead has increased from 4% in April to 17% in August. Monetary policy is also expected to remain broadly unchanged, with 70% of respondents projecting no adjustments.South Asia Growth expectations for South Asia have softened slightly. Thirty-one percent of chief economists expect strong or very strong growth in the year ahead, down from 33% in April, while the share expecting moderate growth has risen from 55% to 66%. India’s growth for 2025 is projected by the IMF at 6.4%,61 but its manufacturing ambitions face headwinds from newly announced US tariffs of 50% on exports,62 a development that weighs heavily on the regional outlook. Inflation has eased sharply, creating space for more stable policy settings. India’s central bank held rates steady in early August, 63 following a drop in consumer price inflation (CPI) to 1.55% in July, the lowest level since 2017 and before CPI readings rebounded to 2.07% in late August.64 The government remains committed to a 4.4% budget deficit target and has introduced sweeping changes to the goods and services tax regime.65 Across South Asia, 64% of surveyed chief economists expect moderate inflation over the next year, 74% anticipate no change in monetary policy and 80% expect fiscal policy to remain steady. Figure 5 : Fiscal policy Looking at the year ahead, what is your expectation for fiscal policy in the following geographies? Looser Unchanged Tighter Europe Sub-Saharan AfricaUnited StatesCentral Asia China East Asia and the PacificSouth Asia Middle East and North Africa1657403 Latin America and the Caribbean12 731574206 8 751716 804 16 80476213 19 78412 7512 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook September 10