Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Latin America and the Caribbean Growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean have improved slightly but remain subdued. Forty-five percent of chief economists surveyed expect weak growth in the year ahead, while 34% expect moderate growth. Regional growth is projected by the World Bank to expand by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% on average in 2026-2027, reflecting steady but modest progress.51 Inflation dynamics show clearer improvement. In April, 38% of respondents expected high inflation; by August, that share had fallen to 19%, while the proportion expecting moderate inflation rose from 55% to 67%. Inflation across the region is expected to remain broadly stable in 2025 and 2026.52 Argentina has been particularly successful, keeping inflation under 2% since May.53 Fiscal and monetary policies are likely to remain steady; more than two-thirds of the surveyed chief economists expect no major changes to fiscal policy over the next year, and three in five expect monetary policy to hold. Middle East and North Africa The Middle East and North Africa has emerged as the region with the strongest growth outlook among the chief economists surveyed. Thirty-seven percent now expect strong or very strong growth in the year ahead, up sharply from 22% in April. Regional growth is expected by the World Bank to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, strengthening further to 3.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.54 Optimism reflects both resource-driven expansion and efforts to diversify economies. New AI-focused partnerships with US firms signal rising confidence in the region’s technology ambitions, while oil production increases are expected to offset lower prices and softer global demand.55 Despite some setbacks, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 remains a flagship effort to diversify an economy,56 while Dubai continues to consolidate its position as the region’s finance hub, underlining the United Arab Emirates’ success in cultivating a favourable business environment.57 Inflationary expectations are measured, with 60% of respondents expecting moderate inflation over the next year. Fiscal and monetary policy settings are also expected to hold steady, with around three-quarters of respondents anticipating no major changes. Figure 4 : Inflation Looking at the year ahead, what is your expectation for inflation in the following geographies? United States Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Europe Central Asia East Asia and the Pacific ChinaVery low Low Moderate High Very high 6 15 18 8 28 3 20 38 58 472 844 44 960 1276 1664 1867 1934 59 Share of respondents (%)38 55 7 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). 9 Chief Economists’ Outlook September