Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Note: Development factors are sorted by share of total responses. The rarely used option “Other (please specify)” was excluded. Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025).Core inputs alone are not sufficient to deliver growth. Whether economies can translate capital, talent, technology and resources into sustained development depends on a range of enabling factors. These growth drivers include trade openness, skills development, innovation capacity and investment attractiveness. In the context of the recent tariff turmoil, it is perhaps unsurprising that trade and market access was cited most frequently as a key growth driver in the evolving global economy. Fifty-five percent of chief economists included it in their top three for advanced economies, rising to 59% for developing economies. Trade and regional/global market access Human capital development Regulatory and institutional reform Physical and digital infrastructure investment Attracting FDI State-led industrial policies and import substitution Green energy investment and industrial transformation Entrepreneurship ecosystem development Export-led industrialization and services Public-private partnerships and joint financing Tourism/culture/soft power and economic diplomacyTechnology and innovation ecosystem developmentDeveloping economies Advanced economiesFigure 21 : Growth drivers Looking at the next three years, how important are the following factors for economies to grow and develop in the evolving global economy? (Select the top three) 59 55 66 39 16 70 38 36 31 33 41 12 21 19 12 3 15 9 3 3 393 Share of respondents (%) Human capital development ranks as the second most important driver overall. Creating the conditions for people to acquire and apply skills will be critical for future growth,106 particularly as job profiles evolve rapidly107 and demographic shifts accelerate.108 With two-thirds of the income gap between advanced and developing economies attributable to disparities in human capital,109 it is no surprise that this driver is viewed as substantially more important for developing economies, which tend to have weaker education systems: 66% of chief economists include it in their top three priorities for developing economies, compared with 39% for advanced economies. Differences between advanced and developing economies are even starker when it comes to attracting FDI and innovation ecosystems. Forty- one percent of chief economists cite FDI attraction as a top-three priority for developing economies, compared to minimal attention for advanced economies. For many developing economies, FDI delivers a package of capital, technology, skills and production capacity that richer countries typically possess domestically.110 Responses on innovation ecosystems skew the other way: 70% of chief economists see it as a top-three priority for advanced economies, compared with just 16% for developing ones. For economies near the technological frontier, strengthening innovation policies is a key driver of productivity and growth, while for developing economies, the greater benefit lies in building the capacity to adopt and diffuse existing technologies.111 Chief Economists’ Outlook September 21