Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

For developing economies, by contrast, capital is overwhelmingly seen as the critical input for growth, highlighted by 93% of respondents. Yet access to capital remains a persistent challenge. At the firm level, unmet financing needs are weighing on private-sector growth. In the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey, access to finance is identified as the biggest obstacle to business in key regions, including the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.103 Public investment is also under pressure, with many developing economies facing net capital outflows as debt-servicing costs increase more rapidly than new disbursements.104 Resources and energy are also seen as crucial growth inputs for developing economies, as highlighted by 82% of respondents. Two-thirds of developing economies remain commodity dependent, including more than 80% of the world’s least-developed countries.105 This dependence has long been seen as a double- edged sword, leaving countries vulnerable to price volatility on international commodity markets, a risk that 53% of chief economists surveyed expect to increase in the year ahead.Figure 20: Commodity market volatility Looking to the year ahead, do you agree/ disagree with the following statement? Volatility in key commodity markets will increase 15 32476 Share of respondents (%) Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). 20 Chief Economists’ Outlook September