Diverging pathways: growth in a fragmented global economy In the wake of repeated shocks and persistent weak growth, as well as longer-term shifts in the global economic order, economies must chart new growth and development pathways. Yet these paths will increasingly diverge. According to the chief economists surveyed, advanced economies are likely to rely more on technology and human capital, while developing economies are expected to depend more on capital and natural resources.3 Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree Skills and talent Advanced 33 12 47 35 Developing 33 21 30 4212 39 48 Developing 33 21 42 30Technology and know-how Advanced 3 12 21 36 27 Developing 33 12 53 29Resources and energy Advanced 3 18 33 39 6 Developing 33 45 48Capital AdvancedFigure 19 : Growth inputs Looking at the next three years, do you agree/disagree with the following statements? Growth in these country groups will depend most on access to... Share of respondents (%) Nearly nine in 10 (87%) of the chief economists surveyed expect growth in advanced economies to depend primarily on access to technology and know-how. At a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, this reliance is increasingly fraught with risks. For example, concerns have surfaced about Europe’s weakness in emerging technologies (increasingly a key growth driver) and its dependence on US technologies to underpin its digital infrastructure.99 Moreover, the rapid development of AI is likely to intensify the sense that growth will increasingly depend on frontier-technology prowess. AI is widely seen as a force multiplier for knowledge- intensive industries, leading to extraordinary levels of investment. A global spending surge on data centres is projected to reach almost $3 trillion over the next four years.100 Only a slightly smaller proportion of respondents (82%) highlighted the role of skills and talent as a driver of growth in advanced economies. Competition for high-end talent is heating up, with countries vying to attract and retain skilled workers.101 For instance, the EU recently launched a two-year, €500 billion package aimed at encouraging researchers to come to Europe.102 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook September 19

Chief Economists Outlook September 2025