Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Consumption and demand: stability amid uncertainty Private consumption and demand are notable outliers in an otherwise highly disrupted global economy: 61% of chief economists rate disruption in this area as low or very low. Consumer sentiment remains an important growth driver, showing only modest fluctuations. In the US, sentiment dipped by around 5% in August on inflation concerns, far less than the double-digit swings seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.97 In China, demand weakness reflects long-standing structural factors rather than sudden shocks.98 Figure 18: Private consumption and demand Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 6 55 21 15 3 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 18 36 33 9 3 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 6 33 27 24 9 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Most respondents view disruption in this area as temporary, with 54% expecting short- or very short- term effects. While 39% see little risk of broader ripple effects, a third consider knock-on impacts likely, suggesting consumption is currently a source of stability but could become a vulnerability if economic pressures deepen. Taken together, these findings across economic domains reveal an economic system under strain, yet constantly adapting, with disruption reaching into every major area of global activity. Chief economists characterize the current environment as one of high and persistent disruption, with most areas undergoing profound transformation. These disruptions are deeply interconnected: trade tensions reverberate through financial markets, technological breakthroughs reshape labour and energy systems, and environmental crises expose vulnerabilities in resource management and institutional frameworks. Even areas that appear resilient, such as private consumption, are not immune to secondary effects. The global economy is transitioning from short-term disruptions to an new economic order. This emerging era is defined by heightened uncertainty and calls for accelerated innovation and adaptive, multistakeholder responses. The contours of this nascent system remain in flux, presenting both significant risks and transformative opportunities. This theme is explored further in the following chapter’s analysis of growth dynamics and divergences. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 18