Investment flows: protectionism reshapes capital allocation Disruption in private investment and capital flows is notable but not, for now, seen as among the most worrisome trends: 42% of chief economists rate it as moderate, and 30% as high or very high. The US is at the centre of current turbulence, with rising tariffs and new investment requirements in trade agreements prompting firms to reconsider global supply chains. To preserve market access, some companies are announcing large-scale investments to reshore production: while registered foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows fell to $52.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1), greenfield announcements surged to a record $183 billion.94 Whether these pledges materialize will be a key marker of the realignment of global investment. Share of respondents (%)Figure 16: Private investment and capital allocation Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 3 24 42 24 6 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 6 33 36 15 9 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 3 36 33 12 15 Figure 17: Labour markets and human capital Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 3 21 45 24 6 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 3 6 36 42 12 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 3 24 15 45 12 Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025).Most respondents see this disruption as temporary: three-quarters expect conditions to stabilize over the short to medium term. Systemic risks appear limited for now, with only 27% of chief economists predicting broader spillover effects, suggesting that capital reallocation is being closely watched but not yet viewed as a structural threat. Labour markets and human capital: underestimated risks Labour markets and human capital are seen as relatively stable for now, with 45% of chief economists rating disruption levels as moderate and 30% as high or very high. The full impact of AI has yet to materialize, but 54% expect long- term or very long- term disruption, signalling an underlying transformation rather than short-term volatility. Demographic shifts and technological change continue to reshape the future of work, and 57% of respondents see a high likelihood of spillover effects if disruption intensifies.95 Despite its current perceived stability, a number of chief economists flagged this area as being underestimated by policy-makers as a source of disruption. They note that migration pressures are building and competition for talent is accelerating, suggesting that labour dynamics could quickly become a more prominent driver of economic risk and opportunity.96 Chief Economists’ Outlook September 17

Chief Economists Outlook September 2025