Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Fiscal policy: debt stoking systemic risks In total, 45% of chief economists rate disruption in public finances and fiscal policy as high or very high, citing unprecedented debt accumulation and major shifts in fiscal stances. Global public debt exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, and more than one-third of countries, accounting for 75% of global GDP , are projected to see further increases this year.92 Advanced economies in particular are loosening fiscal policy: the US is pursuing a historic spending programme with a deficit projected to exceed 7% of GDP , while Germany has amended its constitution to allow a major fiscal expansion focused on infrastructure and defence.93 Fifty- seven percent of respondents expect disruption in this area to persist into the long term. Two-thirds of respondents warn that fiscal imbalances are likely to trigger ripple effects across other domains of the global economy. Debt sustainability concerns, once largely focused on developing economies, are now centred on advanced ones: 80% of chief economists surveyed expect debt vulnerabilities in advanced economies to grow over the next year, underscoring a significant shift in perceived global fiscal risk.Figure 14: Public finances and fiscal policy Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 3 18 33 33 12 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 3 12 27 39 18 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 3 15 15 42 24 Share of respondents (%) Figure 15: Debt sustainability Looking to the year ahead, do you agree/disagree with the following statements? Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree Debt sustainability will be a growing concern in advanced economies 9 11 60 20 Debt sustainability will be a growing concern in developing economies 14 17 60 9 Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). 16 Chief Economists’ Outlook September