Sixty-three percent of respondents expect these disruptions to endure over the long term, warning that dismantling or weakening these institutions will leave lasting scars. Their core functions – coordinating crisis response, setting shared rules, promoting economic and health cooperation, and mediating conflict – are essential to stability. It is therefore unsurprising that almost two-thirds of respondents (63%) anticipate systemic ripple effects, with disruptions in this domain seen as a multiplier of broader economic risk. Financial markets and monetary policy: turbulent times Chief economists largely see disruption in financial markets and monetary policy as temporary rather than structural. While 45% of respondents rate disruption as high or very high, only 21% foresee long-term effects. Markets plunged earlier this year amid tariff turmoil but swiftly rebounded.90 Monetary policy is operating in a more complex environment but has not fundamentally shifted course. Despite this relative stability, vulnerabilities remain highly significant because of the deep interconnectedness of this pillar of the global economy. Eighty-five percent of respondents believe a financial shock would have wide-ranging systemic effects, even as 52% downplay the likelihood of a major crisis in advanced economies in the near term. Several chief economists flagged underappreciated risks in this domain, including the growing intersection between innovation and finance. New stablecoin legislation in the US and speculation around a potential AI- or crypto-driven asset bubble were highlighted as potential triggers for future instability.91Figure 12: Financial markets and monetary policy Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 27 27 39 6 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 3 30 45 18 3 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 3 12 61 24 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Figure 13: Financial crisis risk Looking to the year ahead, do you agree/ disagree with the following statement? One or more advanced economies will experience a financial crisis 9 433793 Share of respondents (%) Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). 15 Chief Economists’ Outlook September

Chief Economists Outlook September 2025