Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

AI’s emergence as a “general method of invention” signals a structural shift in innovation and technology development.81 Three-quarters of respondents expect disruption in this domain to be long term or very long term, and more than 90% anticipate ripple effects in other domains. These include rising energy demand from data centres, rapid advances in renewable energy and clean technologies, and mounting geopolitical tensions around high-tech goods such as semiconductors. 82 Figure 10: Natural resources, energy and environment Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 12 27 52 9 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 3 9 9 36 42 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 9 12 45 33 Share of respondents (%) Figure 11: Global economic institutions Very low Low Moderate High Very high Level of disruption 9 18 24 48 Very short term Short term Medium term Long term Very long term Duration of disruption 3 9 24 18 45 Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Systemic impact 12 6 18 24 39 Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025).Natural resources, energy and environment: systemic risk Sixty-one percent of chief economists rate disruption in natural resources, energy and the environment as high or very high. Concerns over supply bottlenecks remain acute, particularly for rare earths and other critical minerals essential to the clean energy transition, where production is highly concentrated.83 Oil prices remain subdued in the wake of US-Israel-Iran hostilities in June, but additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could disrupt future supply-demand dynamics.84 A spate of extreme weather events has underscored the economic costs of climate change.85 Devastating wildfires across the Iberian Peninsula and deadly floods in Pakistan highlight rising vulnerability.86 Historical OECD data show extreme weather caused annual GDP losses of over 0.3% from 2006-2018, and this figure is likely to climb.87 Seventy-eight percent of respondents expect disruption in this domain to persist over the long term, and the same share foresee systemic spillovers, with several chief economists warning that environmental risks remain deeply underestimated. Global economic institutions: long-term risks Seventy-two percent of chief economists view disruption to global economic institutions as high or very high. The United Nations is undergoing the most significant restructuring in its history, with widespread staff cuts and sweeping mandate revisions, while the WTO has been largely sidelined amid escalating protectionism.88 Even institutions with more stability, such as the IMF and World Bank, face mounting pressure to adapt.89 Chief Economists’ Outlook September 14