Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Executive summary The global economy is undergoing a period of profound transformation, marked by persistent short-term disruption and heightened uncertainty as well as long-term structural change. The World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, drawing on a survey of leading chief economists, paints a picture of resilience amid turbulence, but with growth prospects that remain subdued and risks skewed to the downside. In total, 72% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead. Geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating, with trade tensions at its heart. The US has imposed sweeping tariffs on a large number of economies, prompting a realignment of supply chains and a recalibration of global investment flows. The dollar’s sharp depreciation has granted emerging economies greater monetary flexibility, but also amplified the domestic impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, the rapid pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development is adding another layer of uncertainty, with most chief economists expecting the technology to become commercially disruptive within the next year, while views on labour market impacts remain divided. Regional divergence is increasingly pronounced. The US outlook remains subdued, against a backdrop of major trade policy shifts and elevated inflation risks. Europe’s recovery is fragile but improving, buoyed by steady employment and subdued inflation. China’s growth remains relatively strong, though momentum is slowing and deflationary risks persist. East Asia and the Pacific faces mounting trade headwinds, while Latin America and the Caribbean continues to make modest progress amid stabilizing inflation. The Middle East and North Africa stands out for their robust growth prospects, driven by resource expansion and diversification, while Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia face a mixed outlook amid new tariff pressures and policy adjustments. Beneath these regional trends lies a deeper transformation. The global economy is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in decades, with interconnected shifts reverberating across all domains. Trade and global value chains are experiencing their most significant disruption in generations, with long-term fragmentation expected to cement new patterns of economic activity. The rise of AI is driving a structural shift in technology and innovation, as well as reshaping energy demand and fuelling geopolitical competition over high-tech inputs. Natural resources, energy and the environment are under strain, while the weakening of global economic institutions may exacerbate broader economic vulnerabilities. The chief economists surveyed point to advanced economies’ reliance on technology and human capital, with frontier innovation and skills competition driving productivity. Developing economies, by contrast, depend relatively more on access to capital and natural resources, even as technology and human capital remain important. Respondents pointed to the importance of enabling factors such as trade openness, human capital development and innovation ecosystems, but also highlighted that growth is likely to be inhibited by factors including political instability, weak institutions and trade barriers. The reduction in development aid and funding for global institutions is expected to exacerbate health, migration, security and climate risks. These factors carry different weights for developing and advanced economies, and as economies adapt to both short- and long-term shifts, growth pathways are likely to diverge. The chief economists point to substantial untapped growth potential in developing regions, notably Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Unlocking this potential will require political will, targeted financing and a sustained commitment to international collaboration. The global economy is transitioning from short-term disruptions to an emerging new order defined by heightened uncertainty, accelerated innovation and adaptive, multistakeholder responses. The contours of this system remain in flux, presenting both significant risks and transformative opportunities for policy-makers and business leaders alike. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 4