Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Adapting to uncertainty The global economy has shown resilience in the face of major turbulence this year, but the outlook remains weak and risks are firmly skewed to the downside. Conditions remain heavily shaped by developments in the US, where economic orthodoxy is being challenged sharply, particularly on trade and monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions are also casting a long economic shadow, not so much reducing global integration as redrawing it. Meanwhile, the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI) is widely expected to trigger significant structural change, even as its precise economic impact remains highly uncertain. The World Economic Forum’s latest survey of chief economists reflects this picture of fragility: expectations for 2025 remain subdued, but sentiment has steadied somewhat in recent months as economies adjust to a new set of realities. Weak growth amid a disruptive new reality1 Note: Chief Economists Surveys are conducted 7-8 weeks ahead of the launch of a new Chief Economists’ Outlook. In May’s edition, chief economists looked at the remainder of the year. In other editions, the outlook for the year ahead is given. The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down. Source: Chief Economists Surveys and Outlooks. (May 2023-September 2025).61 39 10050050100 May 23 Jan 24 May 24 Sep 24 Jan 25 May 25 Sep 25Much weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger 11 17 69 3179 28 5654 37174141 23 20 53 333 42 9 42Share of respondents (%)Figure 1: The global economic outlook Looking to the year ahead, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy? Chief Economists’ Outlook September 5