Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

2.1 Understanding the range The wide range in this estimate – from $25.8 billion to $42.3 billion – is driven by the high level of uncertainty surrounding the real-world impact of small, non- trackable debris. To understand the variation in this range, further details about the methodology of the economic valuation can be found in Appendix C. Potential economic losses derive from collision risk across three categories: 1Collision with subsequent anomaly The probability of an anomaly caused by hazardous non-trackable debris with objects measuring between 5 mm and 1 cm. The losses are partial, and the service degradation is temporary without causing the destruction of the spacecraft. 2Collision with subsequent failure The probability of failure caused by lethal non- trackable debris, defined as objects between 1 cm and 10 cm in size. 3 Collisions avoided through preventive manoeuvres The probability of collision with catalogued objects, i.e. debris that can be reliably tracked and considered for collision prevention. Because there are far more small, non-trackable fragments in orbit than larger ones, they are the most significant and frequent source of anomalies. This means that Category 1 is the most significant and uncertain element of the total cost. Because there are far more small, non-trackable fragments in orbit than larger ones, they are the most significant and frequent source of anomalies. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 13