Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Two scenarios to represent the uncertainty in anomaly events (2025–2035) FIGURE 4 20%Scenario 1: Base (full probability estimate)Services $19.3BInfrastructure $11.4B Share of total losses Adjusted share of total losses80% 20% 30% 50% 100% 25% 100% 65% 35% Scenario 2: Adjusted (uncertainty applied) Services $7.7BInfrastructure $6.4B Source: Novaspace, 2025 The effects of these anomalies are not uniform. While most may be minor, a small fraction can cause lasting damage that shortens a satellite’s lifespan.2 The effects of anomalies are also non-linear. The way operators respond to anomalies, such as the time and resources spent on diagnosing or mitigating issues, adds further economic costs that are difficult to capture. To account for the impact of Category 1 uncertainty, the valuation uses distinct approaches to create two scenarios. In scenario 1, the economic estimation model applies a deterministic expected-value approach, using the annual probability of collision derived from the orbital population model. This represents the upper-range estimate of projected losses of approximately $30.7 billion (see Figure 3), based on the annual value of anomaly events derived from the collision probability model. Even at this level, the estimated impact equals only about 1.4% of the space industry’s projected $3.03 trillion in cumulative infrastructure and services value over the next decade, and it treats the model’s probabilities as the best reflection of current knowledge. In scenario 2, the valuation supplements the deterministic approach with an uncertainty- aware scenario that provides a range of possible outcomes rather than a single figure. While the valuation cannot fully capture the severity of anomalies due to its expected-value design, it allows for adjustments to the expected value to better reflect the variance in outcomes of an anomaly event. When incorporating uncertainty adjustments, it is assumed that most anomalies have limited effects, such as minor malfunctions or temporary service interruption. Applying this uncertainty factor to both infrastructure and services yields an estimated impact of $14.2 billion. While most anomalies may be minor, a small fraction can cause lasting damage that shortens a satellite’s lifespan. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 14