Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Economic impact of orbital debris collisions over the decade BOX 2 –Total impact in 2025–2035, including all types of events: $25.8–42.3 billion –Probability of an anomaly (2025–2035): $14.2– 30.7 billion, of which $6.4–11.4 billion is due to infrastructure damage and $7.7–19.3 billion is from service disruption –Probability of a failure (2025–2035): $11.1 billion, of which $4.1 billion is due to infrastructure damage and $7.0 billion is from service disruption –Risk-reduction manoeuvre burden (2025–2035): $560 million Source: Novaspace, 2025 The differences between these two scenarios highlight the need for continued research and greater industry input to refine anomaly modelling, particularly in differentiating between minor failures, system-level anomalies and collisions with catalogued objects where uncertainties are narrower. The uncertainties surrounding anomaly events create a significant gap between expected values and possible real-world outcomes. Greater clarity from industry and academia would help policy- makers adapt rule-making to areas with the highest potential damages and recognize where impacts may be minimal. Areas where more insight is particularly needed include:1Magnitude of damage: How hazardous non-trackable debris affects spacecraft lifespan or causes physical damage 2Service disruption: Whether or how often services are interrupted following an anomaly event, and the duration of such interruptions 3Operator response: The length of time and amount of resources operators dedicate to assessing and mitigating the effects of impacts with hazardous debris 4Mission type differences: How these factors vary between single-satellite missions and large constellations 2.2 Possible futures for debris costs If current mitigation and coordination norms remain unchanged, the orbital environment will steadily become increasingly costly, hazardous and unpredictable to operate in. Collisions and fragmentations are statistical certainties over long- term horizons and are increasingly likely in the near term within specific, densely populated orbital bands. Fast satellite growth, dense clustering around altitudes of 500–600 km and persistent debris reservoirs between 850 km and 1,000 km increase the frequency of close approaches and manoeuvring demands, especially for spacecraft with limited or no ability to manoeuvre. Experts estimate that only six fragmentation events created circa 50% of the current fragment population in LEO.3 For crewed platforms in LEO, each new fragmentation event adds debris that drifts downwards through their operating corridor. This forces expensive avoidance manoeuvres and raises residual risks from smaller, non-trackable debris. Without stronger measures, such as post-mission passivation of spacecraft, shorter disposal timelines and targeted removal of high-risk derelicts, the probability of damaging encounters will increase. In response, operators are adopting more conservative mission designs that require greater fuel reserves and additional shielding, both of which increase mass and cost while reducing operational efficiency and lifetime. Operationally, a status quo future could mean: –Operators will be forced to perform more frequent avoidance manoeuvres, shrinking mission margins and consuming fuel needed for primary operations. –Satellites will suffer from higher anomaly rates caused by non-trackable fragments, leading to more frequent service disruptions. –Missions will face growing design penalties, as satellites will require more shielding and propellant, reducing their performance and efficiency. –New entrants will face elevated risks when launching into already congested orbital shells. –As loss probabilities rise, insurance premiums will surge, coverage will narrow and parts of the orbital environment may become effectively uninsurable, further discouraging investment and innovation. If current mitigation and coordination norms remain unchanged, the orbital environment will steadily become increasingly costly, hazardous and unpredictable to operate in. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 15