Economic impact of orbital debris collisions over the decade according to different categories of events FIGURE 3 Probability of anomaly $14.2–30.7B 2025–2035 Risk-reduction manoeuvre burden Probability of failure $11.1B 2025–2035$6.4 –11. 4B Infrastructure $7.7–1 9.3B Services $560M Manoeuvre cost $4.1B Infrastructure $7.0B ServicesTotal loss 2025–2035, including all categories of events $25.8–42.3B Note: Includes the value of services in low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO) and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) Source: Novaspace, 2025 Orbital debris already imposes a measurable economic drag, a hidden cost absorbed by satellite operators, insurers and downstream industries reliant on uninterrupted space services. A detailed description of the economic valuation methodology and assumptions can be found in Appendix C. Using the orbital population model, together with the market valuation and satellite forecasts, this report presents the first integrated economic assessment quantifying the cumulative operational and service-level impact of orbital debris. Although the annual risk to any single satellite is low, the cumulative effect across thousands of spacecraft is substantial. Scaled across constellations and years of operation, these small probabilities translate into higher fuel use, lost data, tighter profit margins and stricter insurance terms, even in the absence of major incidents. The projected cost range represents a business- as-usual baseline. It is critical to note that this is a conservative estimate. A single catastrophic event excluded from the debris population model, such as a large-scale collision in a dense cluster or a deliberate anti-satellite (ASAT) test, could far exceed these estimates and drastically amplify losses. The figures highlight a persistent and escalating economic burden. Proactive action – through improved mitigation, remediation and coordinated international governance – is essential to prevent these baseline costs from further compounding the systemic constraint on the growth of the space economy. Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 12

Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026