Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

To convert the physical risks of debris identified in the orbital population model into economic costs, the valuation categorizes collision types corresponding to specific economic impacts, detailed in Table 3. Specific economic impacts of collision types TABLE 3 Collision type Physical outcome Economic impact HNT (5 mm–1 cm) Temporary malfunction Lost service revenue, repair or back-up activation LNT (>1–10 cm) Total mission loss Replacement and launch cost, insurance payout PC(Cat) Avoidance manoeuvre Fuel consumption, shortened lifetime, labour cost For each collision type, the probability of occurrence as a factor of the estimated financial consequence produces an expected-value range rather than a single figure. When aggregated across all LEO assets between 2025 and 2035, this yields between $25.8 billion and $42.3 billion in expected losses. These losses represent approximately 0.9% to 1.4% of the $3.03 trillion total projected value of the entire global space economy (including LEO, MEO and GEO services) over that same ten-year period (see Figure 2).Cumulative total value of satellites and their services from 2025 to 2035 FIGURE 2 Satellite value $954B $2,077B Services*$3,031B of which $25.8B ≈ 0.9% $42.3B ≈ 1.4% Note: *Includes the value of services in low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO) and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) Source: Novaspace, 2025 Cumulative total value of satellites and their services of 2025–2035 BOX 1 –Total satellite value (combined manufacturing cost and launch cost) 2025–2035: $954 billion –Total value of the services rendered by the satellites in orbit 2025–2035: $2,077 billion –The potential economic loss from orbital debris collisions with satellites is $25.8–42.3 billion, which represents between 0.9% and 1.4% of the total value over the decadeThese losses can be broken down into specific areas of impact (see Figure 3): –$14.7–26.3 billion from service disruptions and degraded performance –$10.5–15.5 billion from physical asset loss –$0.56 billion from collision-avoidance manoeuvres Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 11