Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Two scenarios to represent the uncertainty in anomaly events (2025–2035) (see Figure 4) BOX 3 Scenario 1 Reflects unadjusted expected losses, $11.4 billion for infrastructure and $19.3 billion for services, based on the full probability value from the orbital population modelScenario 2 Applies uncertainty-adjustment factors to represent limited-impact anomalies; the adjustments retain a portion of Scenario 1’s losses by severity tier, resulting in reduced totals of $6.4 billion for infrastructure and $7.7 billion for services. For services: Given that the satellites studied are in LEO and predominantly part of constellations, where redundancy reduces the risk of service disruption, the discounts are steeper: –80% of the expected value is discounted, with only 25% of its value retained. This large portion of the expected value is meant to represent the predominance of constellations in the model and their redundancy. –The remaining 20% is not discounted and is fully counted in the decadal sum, representing the single satellite missions that are more likely to be heavily affected by an anomaly event in terms of service delivery. Source: Novaspace, 2025 Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 29